The NFL is pushing the CFTC to toughen its prediction markets rule, while Dodd-Frank co-author Christopher Dodd argues the agency has no authority to regulate sports contracts at all.
Gov. Tim Walz signed an executive order barring Minnesota state employees from insider-trading-style bets on prediction markets, a day after a federal judge blocked the state’s broader prediction market ban.
A Wisconsin federal judge rejected the CFTC’s request to shield Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction markets from state gambling law, ruling sports-event contracts are unlikely to qualify as swaps.
The AGA, Indian Gaming Association, AGEM, and attorneys general from 44 states are pushing back on a CFTC rule that could let prediction markets list sports event contracts nationwide.
Kalshi has agreed to finish rolling out third-party geofencing in Nevada by August 12 or pay $120,000 a day, avoiding a contempt hearing tied to a May court injunction.
BetMGM has pushed back its $500M EBITDA target for a second time, citing regulatory complexity tied to the rapid rise of prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
A coalition of 44 states, the NFL, and former Sen. Chris Dodd all told the CFTC its proposed prediction market rule oversteps federal authority as the comment period closed.
Reps. Steven Horsford and Mark Amodei filed the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, a House bill that would bar Kalshi, Polymarket, and other CFTC-registered platforms from listing sports and casino-style event contracts.
Jefferies analyst James Wheatcroft says Flutter’s 65% stock decline overstates the real threat from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prediction markets captured roughly 27% of legal US sports-betting volume during the World Cup, up from 9% in January, as Kalshi surged past DraftKings and FanDuel in daily users.
A bipartisan push to rein in sports betting and prediction markets has stalled in Congress, even as hearings pile up and lawsuits over CFTC jurisdiction spread state by state.
Judge Analisa Torres rejected Kalshi’s request for an injunction pending appeal on July 27, denying the prediction market operator emergency relief from New York gambling enforcement for the second time in a month.
