BetMGM Rethinks $500M EBITDA Target Amid Prediction Markets Pressure

BetMGM has once again pushed back its timeline for hitting $500 million in annual EBITDA, pointing directly to the “impact of prediction market regulatory complexity” as a key factor slowing its path to profitability. It’s the second time the joint venture between Entain and MGM Resorts International has revised the target, and this time the delay is more significant than the first.

The $500 million goal was originally set in December 2023 with a 2026 deadline. That got pushed to 2027 in an earlier revision, and now BetMGM says it’s “prudent to assume the timing of delivery will extend beyond current 2027 expectations.” In its Q2 2026 earnings update, the operator said it remains confident in reaching the number eventually, just not on the schedule it had mapped out.

Why Prediction Markets Are Suddenly a Line Item

The timing lines up with a broader shift the entire sports betting industry has been grappling with. Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in volume over the past year, particularly around major events. During the recent World Cup, prediction-market activity reportedly accounted for roughly 27% of all legal US sports-betting volume, up from just 9% at the start of the year, according to estimates from H2 Gambling Capital.

Kalshi alone logged $31 billion in notional trading volume in June, with about 85% of that tied to sports contracts. Combined monthly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket hit nearly $45 billion that same month — more than triple the average monthly handle of every legal US sportsbook combined in 2025. Because these platforms operate under CFTC oversight rather than state gaming regulators, they’ve been able to expand into states where traditional sports betting remains illegal, adding a layer of competitive pressure that operators like BetMGM didn’t have to account for just two years ago.

The Numbers Behind the Guidance Cut

BetMGM’s Q2 2026 report showed net revenue of $711 million, up three percent year-over-year, with first-half revenue climbing four percent to $1.4 billion. But adjusted EBITDA told a different story — down 15 percent in Q2 to $74 million, and down nine percent for the first half to $99 million. The company said full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA are now expected to land toward the lower end of its previously issued guidance ranges.

Igaming net revenue rose eight percent year-over-year, a bright spot the company credited to the strength of its casino offering, including a recently redesigned Borgata Online Casino in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Online sports betting revenue, however, was flat — something BetMGM attributed to the NBA playoffs, the World Cup, and “higher player generosity” cutting into hold. Average monthly actives dipped three percent, while retail net revenue collapsed 97 percent due to larger stakes won by premium players.

What BetMGM Is Saying

BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt struck an optimistic tone despite the guidance cut, saying the company “started 2026 well and continues to execute with discipline.” He pointed to healthy player fundamentals and positive cash flow as reasons for confidence, while acknowledging the tougher landscape. “While our industry faces regulatory complexity and an increasingly competitive environment, we remain agile and committed to our strategy that is delivering sustainable and profitable growth,” Greenblatt said, adding that the company plans to lean further into its igaming strength, its Nevada omnichannel presence, and its highest-value customers going forward.

A Bigger Signal for the Industry

BetMGM isn’t alone in feeling the squeeze. Search demand for prediction markets has been measurable in 48 of 50 states, according to data from Blask, even though regulated sports betting is only live in 31. In states without licensed sportsbooks — including Texas, California, and Georgia — Kalshi and Polymarket have already built a real audience. That dynamic is forcing every operator to rethink not just their marketing spend but their long-term financial targets, and BetMGM’s second downward revision in as many years suggests this is far from a short-term blip. For bettors weighing where to place their action, the shifting landscape only underscores the value of comparing BetMGM promo code offers against the rest of the market before committing to a platform.