3 NHL Goal Scorer and Points Props to Back on November 8

Sunday’s NHL card is a three-act matinee: Florida at Boston at 1 PM ET, Vegas at Buffalo at 3:30 PM ET, and Tampa Bay at Winnipeg at 6 PM ET. Rather than fight the sides and totals, the sharper play is the points market, where a single power-play assist can cash a ticket and the underlying numbers tell you who is getting the looks.

Three skaters stand out for different reasons: a superstar riding a heater, a winger whose usage keeps producing, and a defenseman whose price sits right at even money. Here is the case for each over 0.5 points.

David Pastrnak Over 0.5 Points: Boston’s Engine Against Florida

Pastrnak enters the Panthers game with 8 goals and 14 assists for 22 points in 17 games, and he has 14 points over his last 10 contests (6 goals, 8 assists). He skates on the top line with Pavel Zacha and JJ Peterka, a trio driving Boston to a 12-4-1 record and a three-game win streak that includes a 6-2 win in Pittsburgh on Thursday.

The matchup leans his way too. Florida is playing without Aleksander Barkov (knee) and Brad Marchand (knee), and the Panthers’ goaltending has been shaky, with Jacob Markstrom at a .879 save percentage and Akira Schmid at .889. Boston is a modest favorite at roughly -135 on the moneyline with a total of 6.5, which points to a game where Pastrnak should see plenty of offensive-zone time. Prices on his points line move quickly, so check your book before you bet it.

Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 Points: Tampa’s Quiet Producer in Winnipeg

Hagel has 8 goals and 9 assists for 17 points in 16 games, a pace just above a point per game, and he is firing 3.9 shots per night. He averages about 20:56 of ice time and has already notched four power-play points. Even after going pointless in Saturday’s game at Minnesota, the shot volume suggests the production has not gone anywhere.

The price is -135 at DraftKings, which is a real tax, but Dimers puts the probability at 58.8%, and the Jets have been generous to forwards, allowing 21.3 shots per game to that group, eighth most in the league. Hagel also had a three-point night (1 goal, 2 assists) against Winnipeg on October 29, so he has recent evidence of how this matchup can play out. If you can afford a short price, this is the steadiest leg on the board.

Shea Theodore Over 0.5 Points: Plus Money on a Top-Pair Defenseman

Theodore is the value play of the three. The Vegas defenseman put up 39 points (10 goals, 29 assists) in 70 games last season and plays top-pair minutes, north of 21 minutes a night. Dimers gives him a 56.9% probability to record a point against Buffalo, and DraftKings is offering +100, which implies only 50%, so you are getting a price that undersells the chance.

The game itself should help. Vegas and Buffalo are sitting at near pick-em moneylines with a total around 6, a profile that tends to produce goals on both ends, and Theodore’s power-play time gives him multiple paths to a point. Defensemen carry more variance than forwards, so size this one accordingly, but even money on a better-than-even shot is what a props bettor is looking for. Before locking it in, run the numbers through our odds and probability calculator to compare the implied probability against your own.

Lock These In: Sunday’s Points Plays

All three picks are built on the same idea: skaters with strong usage, favorable matchups, and prices that either fairly reflect or undersell their chances. If you are new to the book, a DraftKings promo code can soften the cost of that -135 on Hagel. Here is the full card.

• David Pastrnak OVER 0.5 Points (check your book for the current price)
• Brandon Hagel OVER 0.5 Points (-135, DraftKings)
• Shea Theodore OVER 0.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)

Lines move through the day, so confirm the number before you bet. Good luck, and enjoy the hockey.