3 NHL Goal Scorer and Points Props to Back on November 5
Cole Caufield, Nikita Kucherov and Mark Scheifele headline Thursday's NHL goal scorer and points props, with real lines, recent form and goalie matchups.
Thursday night’s NHL slate has three skaters whose prices look a half-step behind their expected output: a shooter who keeps finding the net at home, a playmaker running Tampa Bay’s power play, and a veteran center facing a goalie in free fall.
All three plays below lean on recent form, goalie matchups and model-implied probabilities rather than gut feel. Every game drops the puck at 7:00 PM ET, so shop your number early and confirm lineups before you fire.
Cole Caufield Anytime Goal Scorer (+135) vs. Utah
Caufield (No. 13) leads Montreal with 10 goals and 14 points through 15 games, and he has done it on volume: 48 shots on goal, two of the goals on the power play, and a two-goal night in Tuesday’s 5-4 overtime loss to Winnipeg. That works out to roughly 0.67 goals per game from a shooter averaging about three shots a night.
The matchup sets up well. Utah’s goalie options are Karel Vejmelka at a 3.31 GAA and .872 save percentage and Sergei Cossa at 2.95 and .875, and neither is stopping enough pucks to scare a sniper at Bell Centre. The Mammoth are also just 5-4-0 on the road. Dimers’ simulations put Caufield’s probability at 45.4% with a 2.8% edge at +135, a sign the market is still slightly underpricing him.
Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points vs. Chicago
Kucherov (No. 86) leads Tampa Bay with 20 points (4 goals, 16 assists) in 14 games and has piled up 7 points over his last five, including 5 assists across the last two. The Lightning are 7-0-0 at home and sit at a heavy -380 moneyline against a Blackhawks team that is 4-10-1 overall and 0-5-1 away from home.
A game script where Tampa Bay leads early means more power-play time and more minutes for the top unit, and Kucherov is the engine of that unit. Public projections land him around 1.78 points, which clears a 1.5 line with room to spare. Check your book for the exact number and juice, because multi-point props on stars at home against a bottom-tier road team can move quickly once lineups confirm.
Mark Scheifele Anytime Goal Scorer (+160) vs. Vancouver
Scheifele (No. 55) is the plus-money value play of the three. The Jets center has 14 points in 16 games, 6 points over his last five, and 6 points across the last five meetings with Vancouver. Dimers projects a 40.6% probability with a 2.2% edge at +160.
The reason is the goalie. Vancouver is 3-13-1 and Kevin Lankinen is 1-8-0 with a 6.03 GAA and a .808 save percentage, numbers that make almost any shot a scoring chance. Winnipeg is a home favorite around -218 and is coming off a 5-4 overtime win in Montreal, so the offense has rhythm. Scheifele has been more of a setup man this season than a finisher, and a goalie this far below league average is the spot where that gap closes.
Today’s Edge: Lock These In
Each of these plays pairs a hot skater with a shaky goalie or a lopsided matchup. Here are the three bets, with odds as listed at the time of writing, so confirm the final number at your sportsbook before placing anything. If you are still shopping for a book, a DraftKings promo code can give a new account some extra room to work with.
- Cole Caufield anytime goal scorer (+135) at Montreal vs. Utah
- Nikita Kucherov OVER 1.5 points (check your book for the current price) vs. Chicago
- Mark Scheifele anytime goal scorer (+160) vs. Vancouver
Three shooters, three soft matchups, and prices that still leave room. Bet responsibly and shop around.