3 NHL Goal Scorer, Points and Assists Props to Back on October 22

Thursday’s NHL board is a 12-game slate, and the cleanest points-market edges are sitting in three very different spots: a Western Canada road trip stop in Calgary, a back-to-back in Ottawa, and a power-play quarterback in Toronto. Goals are not the only way to cash a ticket, and tonight the points and multi-point markets are where the numbers point.

These three plays share a common thread: each one pairs a player with a clear role and a matchup that tilts the scoring odds in his favor. Here is the data behind each one.

Kirill Kaprizov 2+ Points at Calgary (+126)

Kirill Kaprizov has been the most dangerous scorer in hockey through the first three weeks. The Minnesota Wild winger has 17 points in 10 games, including 11 goals, and five of those 10 games have been multi-point performances. That means he has cleared this exact line in half of his starts, which makes plus money on 2+ points a real number rather than a long shot.

The matchup is about as favorable as it gets. The Calgary Flames are 2-6 and are allowing 4.63 goals per game, the second-worst mark in the league. Minnesota is a heavy road favorite around -195 on the moneyline with the total set at 5.5, so the game script points toward a productive night for Kaprizov’s line alongside Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek. Puck drop is 9:00 PM ET at the Scotiabank Saddledome. At +126, the 2+ points ticket pays better than the price implies for a player who has done it five times in 10 tries.

Drake Batherson Over 0.5 Points vs. San Jose (-130)

Drake Batherson is a quiet producer for the Ottawa Senators. He has seven points in 10 games (four goals, three assists) and has recorded at least one point in six of his last 10 outings, averaging 0.7 points per game over that stretch. He picked up a point on Wednesday night against Florida, so the production is steady rather than a streak that is due to end.

The price is steeper at around -130, but the model support is there: Dimers puts the probability at 63.5% with a 7.0% edge, the largest of the three plays here. The Senators are also playing the second half of a back-to-back against a San Jose Sharks team that is 5-4-1, and the game carries a 6.5-goal total at 7:00 PM ET. In a game with that much scoring expected, a top-line winger who gets a point in six of 10 games is worth laying the juice on.

Darren Raddysh Over 0.5 Points vs. Rangers (-120)

Darren Raddysh was brought to Toronto to run the Maple Leafs power play, and that unit is doing its job. Toronto is converting at 26.7%, eighth in the league and up from 21.3% last season, and two of Raddysh’s four assists this season have come with the man advantage. He has 21 shots on the year and added an assist in Monday’s 3-1 win over San Jose, so the volume is there even as he adjusts to a new team.

The Rangers are also without Igor Shesterkin, with Dylan Garand projected to start in net. That is a significant downgrade for a team that has to defend Toronto’s power play, and it raises the odds that Raddysh finds the scoresheet from the blue line. Dimers rates the over at 57.5% with a 2.9% edge at -120, a smaller margin than the other two plays, but a defenseman who quarterbacks a top-10 power play against a backup netminder is a sound spot at 7:00 PM ET.

Lock These In

The edge on Thursday is clearest in the points market, where role, matchup and recent production all line up. Kaprizov brings the upside, Batherson brings the strongest model edge, and Raddysh brings the steady power-play angle. Check the latest sportsbook promotions before placing any of these bets so you start with the best available offer.

• Kirill Kaprizov 2+ points at Calgary (+126)
• Drake Batherson OVER 0.5 points vs. San Jose (-130)
• Darren Raddysh OVER 0.5 points vs. Rangers (-120)

Lines move through the afternoon, so confirm the price at your book before you bet and check goalie confirmations closer to puck drop.