3 NFL Best Bets and Predictions for Week 16

There are just three weeks left in the 2024 NFL season as we’ve approached Week 16. We’ll have two Saturday games this weekend giving the Texans, Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers an extra day of rest as they’ll all be in action on Wednesday (Christmas Day).

We’ll take a look at one of those games and continue onto the Sunday slate below. Good luck this week!

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

I don’t think the Steelers are an elite team in the NFL. This is a hill that I’m willing to die on, despite all the Tomlin voodoo that’s occurred in 2024. Most of the Steelers’ offensive success this year has come from third down heaves down field to George Pickens in what is an otherwise awful wide receiver group. Firstly, this isn’t a trend that yields a high expected success rate and secondly, I’m expecting George Pickens to miss another week nursing his hamstring injury.

The positive news for the Steelers is that TJ Watt was a full participant in practice despite rolling his ankle in Week 15. However, CB Donte Jackson and DT Larry Ogunjobi were both LP and will be impacted by their injuries if they can suit up on Saturday. 

Baltimore’s pass defense hasn’t been great this year, but this isn’t a Steelers team that’s built to beat them through the air, especially missing their top target. It’s been a world-class run stop in 2024, and I expect that trend to continue against Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

Lamar Jackson would be the NFL MVP this season if not for the performance of Josh Allen and I expect that to continue against the Steelers. We’ve certainly seen some poor performances out of this Baltimore team.

There’s a lot of stats floating around social media about how the Ravens can’t beat Mike Tomlin and how the Steelers have always played Baltimore close. While I do think there’s some truth to the divisional angle, this is not the spot I expect to see that trend continue.

Bet: Baltimore Ravens -6 -110

The Steelers beat the Ravens in a strange Week 11 matchup at home. Two costly first half fumbles and a missed Justin Tucker FG saw Baltimore down 9-7 at halftime and eventually lose after a Lamar Jackson interception.

Pittsburgh kicked 6 field goals in that matchup and could not find the end zone, yet still beat one of the league’s best offenses. I don’t see that performance repeating here with Baltimore at home and key members of the Steelers dealing with injuries.

I think Baltimore runs up the score on their division rival and wouldn’t mind taking some alternate lines as well. Baltimore -6 is still available in the market at -110 or -115 but I’d be fine betting -6.5 at -110 as well.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

We’ll dip into Sunday Night Football for this matchup between the Bucs and Cowboys in Week 16. It’s odd to look at the Cowboys in 2024 and their 1-6 record at home. Home field advantage has been diminished in the NFL in recent years; however, the Cowboys have a massive following and would be considered one of the teams who still deserve a bump playing at home.

2024 hasn’t been the case for Jerry Jones and company as the Cowboys will likely miss the playoffs for the first time since 2020. The Bucs are looking to lock up the NFC South and this is a big matchup against a conference opponent for them. A loss here and a Falcons win would see the Falcons in position to win the division and the Bucs on the outside looking in of a highly competitive NFC conference.

I think we see Baker Mayfield and the Bucs tear apart what has ended up being an extremely poor Dallas defense. They’ve gotten a bump since Micah Parsons returned to the lineup, but he’s not enough to overcome an awful run-stop.

The Bucs have quietly been a top five offense in the NFL, despite missing Chris Godwin for most of the season. The Bucs have finally found some efficiency running the ball with both Rashaad White and Bucky Irving. Plus, Mike Evans indoors against this secondary should have a massive game on Sunday. 

Bet: Bucs -4 -110 and Bucs o25.5 (-122)

Cooper Rush is not the answer at QB as he’s been one of the worst starting QBs in the league in terms of EPA per play. The Bucs have ramped up the pass rush in recent weeks and the Cowboys offensive line is not equipped to handle the blitz rate of the Bucs.

Cooper Rush isn’t a QB who does well under pressure without much scramble ability and only one target in CeeDee Lamb that creates any separation. The Bucs pass rush can hide their poor secondary in this game and I think the Cowboys will continue to struggle on the ground.

I’m looking at Tampa Bay to cover the four-point spread and also go over their team total. Again, this would be a spot that I’d sell some points and take some alternate lines on Tampa Bay.