Miami Takes No. 1 in AP Poll as BYU Surges to No. 2, but National Title Odds Tell a Different Story

Miami is the new No. 1 team in the country, and the futures market is not entirely convinced it belongs there. The Hurricanes (6-0) climbed from No. 3 to the top of the Associated Press Top 25 on Sunday for the first time since 2002, while BYU (6-0) jumped six spots to No. 2, its highest ranking since the 1984 national championship season. The shake-up followed a first in the 90-year history of the poll: five of the top seven teams lost on the same Saturday.

Miami collected 40 of the 70 first-place votes and finished just 22 points ahead of the Cougars, who received 20 first-place votes. Ohio State, which survived a 19-15 trip to Indiana, moved up to No. 3 with nine first-place votes, followed by Notre Dame at No. 4, Georgia at No. 5 and Indiana at No. 6. Ole Miss rose to No. 7 and Texas Tech sits at No. 8. Not one team in the Top 25 stayed in the same spot.

Why Miami and BYU Landed at the Top

The Hurricanes did their part by outlasting in-state rival Florida State 43-35 in double overtime at Hard Rock Stadium, improving to 4-0 in Atlantic Coast Conference play. Then the teams ahead of them stumbled. Georgia lost at home to unranked Auburn after a week at No. 1, and Notre Dame, which entered the day ranked second, was beaten on the road by BYU.

That BYU win is what propelled the Cougars. Bear Bachmeier threw the go-ahead touchdown pass with 1:47 left in a 28-24 victory at LaVell Edwards Stadium, ending Notre Dame’s 16-game winning streak and giving BYU its first win over a top-10 opponent since 2018. Bachmeier finished with 224 passing yards and also scored twice on the ground, while Preston Rex added 66 rushing yards. The finish was not without controversy; the Big 12 later said the final play was incorrectly cleared by the replay crew because time remained on the clock when the ball hit the ground. The result stands, and BYU is now the top team in a Big 12 that has five teams in the poll.

The schedules ahead are where the story gets interesting. Miami visits Notre Dame on Nov. 7, which is the Hurricanes’ first major test after a run of ACC opponents. BYU’s only remaining ranked opponent is Utah, also unbeaten, in the Holy War on the same date in Salt Lake City. Both No. 1 and No. 2 have a clear checkpoint on the calendar, and both arrive on the same afternoon.

Title Odds: Oddsmakers Haven’t Crowned Anyone New

The most telling number from the weekend is not Miami’s ranking but where it sits on the national championship board. According to updated futures from FanDuel, Ohio State remains the favorite at +430, with Notre Dame at +490, Georgia at +500 and Miami fourth at +650. In other words, the team the voters placed No. 1 is still a fourth choice with oddsmakers, who appear to be discounting a lighter ACC schedule until the Hurricanes face the Fighting Irish.

The biggest movers were teams that won. BYU shortened from +8000 to +4500 after beating Notre Dame, though that still puts the No. 2 team in the poll behind a long list of one-loss programs, including Indiana at +850, Alabama at +1100, Texas at +1600, Ole Miss at +1700 and LSU at +1900. Ole Miss improved from +2700 to +1700 after beating Missouri and now looks like one of the SEC’s strongest remaining contenders. Tennessee moved from +6000 to +4000 after beating Alabama.

On the other side of the ledger, Alabama slipped from +950 to +1100 after its second straight loss, and Texas drifted from +900 to +1600 after falling to Florida. Georgia barely moved, going from +490 to +500, which suggests the market views its one loss as far less damaging than the ranking drop implies. Indiana actually shortened from +1000 to +850 despite the defeat, simply because so many other contenders fell.

For bettors, the gap between poll position and price highlights a few things to watch. Polls reward unbeaten records, while futures prices still lean on power ratings and strength of schedule. That is why a one-loss Georgia or Notre Dame can be priced ahead of an unbeaten Miami or BYU. The Nov. 7 slate should help settle it. If Miami wins in South Bend, its number should keep tightening against the favorites, while a Notre Dame win would put the Irish squarely back in the driver’s seat. If BYU gets past Utah, a +4500 price would look like an outlier for an undefeated team with a top-two ranking and a realistic path to a playoff berth.

Plenty of football remains, and with this many contenders already carrying a loss, the title board is likely to keep moving week to week. For now, Miami and BYU have the polls, Ohio State has the favorite’s price, and the market is waiting for the Hurricanes and Cougars to prove the rankings right.