Prediction Markets Are Outpacing Traditional Sportsbooks in World Cup App Downloads, Apptopia Data Shows

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is generating a surge of new users across sports betting and prediction market apps, but the biggest beneficiaries are not the traditional sportsbooks — they are Kalshi and Polymarket, which combined to account for nearly 75% of total app downloads in the betting and prediction market category from June 1 through June 15, according to new data from Apptopia.

The alt-data provider released a comprehensive report on June 17 analyzing DraftKings, Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel), Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts International, and Kalshi, finding that the World Cup has functioned as a powerful re-acquisition and new-user acquisition tool — particularly for prediction market platforms that operate under a more favorable fee structure than traditional sportsbooks.

Younger Bettors Are the Fastest-Growing Segment

The Apptopia report found that sports bettors are skewing younger, with that demographic representing the fastest-growing user segment across every platform analyzed. The data shows the World Cup is both attracting first-time bettors and re-engaging previously churned users who have returned specifically for the tournament — a pattern that has implications for how operators approach marketing and product development beyond the summer.

Traditional sportsbooks are not standing still. DraftKings daily active users are up 117% year-over-year, with FanDuel up 48% and BetMGM up 42%. But those gains accumulated across a full year. Kalshi and Polymarket posted comparable daily user increases in just the past month, driven almost entirely by World Cup activity.

Why Prediction Markets Are Winning the Moment

The competitive advantage for prediction markets during the World Cup is structural. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate under CFTC-regulated exchange models that allow peer-to-peer trading with lower fees than the traditional vig built into sportsbook odds. For cost-conscious bettors, especially those new to wagering and sensitive to the value proposition, that difference is meaningful.

The World Cup has also generated a class of contracts — covering everything from individual match outcomes to player props and even whether specific phrases will be said on broadcasts — that lends itself naturally to the prediction market format. Traditional sportsbooks offer markets on match results, spreads, and totals, but the unlimited granularity of prediction markets has drawn in users who want more creative engagement with the tournament.

For the traditional sportsbook operators, the data is a signal about the next phase of the competitive landscape. DraftKings and FanDuel both have their own prediction market offerings — DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts — but the independent platforms appear to be holding a meaningful share-of-attention advantage. The distinction between prediction markets and traditional sports betting matters more than ever in this environment, and bettors who understand both formats are increasingly well-positioned to find value across platforms.