Senate Hearing on Prediction Markets Set for May 20 — What the No Sure Bets Hearing Could Mean for the Industry

The Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy is holding its first formal hearing on prediction markets and sports betting on May 20, titled “No Sure Bets: Protecting Sports Integrity in America.” The hearing marks the first time prediction markets have been formally placed alongside the licensed sportsbook industry in a congressional hearing, and several competing pieces of legislation are on the agenda that could significantly alter how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate going forward.

Senator Marsha Blackburn is among the lawmakers leading the hearing, which comes as Congress has accelerated its scrutiny of prediction markets over the past several months. The American Gaming Association has spent $730,000 lobbying on prediction markets in the first quarter of 2026 alone, the heaviest single-quarter expenditure the trade group has made in more than a year, a signal of how seriously the regulated casino and sportsbook industry views the threat posed by unregulated prediction market platforms.

What Legislation Is on the Table

Multiple bills are competing for momentum heading into the hearing. The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act would ban live-event wagering on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket outright. The Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act would instead require platforms to register with the CFTC and meet the same anti-money-laundering and consumer protection standards already imposed on licensed sportsbooks. A bipartisan bill introduced by Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms from offering sports event contracts while preserving prediction markets for legitimate financial hedging purposes.

A coalition of 41 state attorneys general has written to Congress urging regulatory clarity. The core tension is whether CFTC-regulated prediction markets that offer sports event contracts are operating as unregulated sportsbooks in states that have not legalized sports betting. For users of these platforms, prediction markets’ legal status remains in flux, and the outcome of the May 20 hearing could determine which legislative approach gains traction in the second half of 2026. The result will affect not just Kalshi and Polymarket but also DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts promo, and Robinhood promo code‘s prediction market product, all of which are built on the same CFTC-regulated infrastructure.

The Stakes for Bettors and Traders

For the millions of Americans currently using prediction market platforms for sports event contracts, the May 20 hearing represents the most consequential moment yet in the regulatory future of these products. If Congress passes legislation restricting sports contracts, users in states without legal sports betting would lose access to the markets they are currently using. If the hearing leads to a regulatory framework rather than a ban, the industry could emerge more stable and better protected but also more constrained. The Sports Betting Alliance and the major prediction market platforms are both expected to have representation at or around the hearing, making this week a critical inflection point for the entire sector.