2026 Heisman Trophy Watch List: Top Contenders and Dark Horses to Know Before Kickoff

College football’s 2026 season is still more than a month away from kickoff, but the Heisman Trophy conversation is already in full swing. Preseason odds have been circulating since the calendar turned to the new year, and with several proven quarterbacks returning to loaded rosters, oddsmakers are staring at one of the most wide-open — and quarterback-heavy — races in recent memory. No single player has separated himself the way past frontrunners have, which means the watch list stretches well beyond the handful of household names dominating early headlines.

As of mid-July, sportsbooks like BetMGM, FanDuel and Caesars have Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Texas’s Arch Manning at the top of the board, with Ole Miss transfer Trinidad Chambliss right behind them. But the gap between the favorites and the pack isn’t huge, and history says the eventual winner often isn’t even on the radar this early. Here’s a breakdown of who’s leading the way, who could sneak into the conversation, and what to watch for as fall camps open.

The Frontrunners: Carr, Manning and Chambliss

CJ Carr enters his second year as Notre Dame’s starter after a breakout redshirt-freshman campaign that included a ten-game winning streak to close the season. Carr finished 2025 completing 66.6% of his passes for 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns and just six interceptions, with a 9.4 yards-per-attempt mark that tied for second nationally and a passer rating that broke the Notre Dame single-season record. He’s the first returning starting quarterback the Irish have had since 2020, and with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock back for a third year calling plays, evaluators see him as a legitimate leap candidate on a Notre Dame team carrying its highest preseason expectations since 2006. Carr sits at or near the top of most 2026 Heisman boards, generally in the +700 to +800 range depending on the book.

Arch Manning is right there with him. After an uneven start to 2025, Manning caught fire down the stretch, finishing with a 61.4% completion rate, 3,163 passing yards and 26 touchdown passes, plus a personal-best 155 rushing yards in a signature performance against Michigan. Texas added firepower this offseason, bringing in receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn and running back Hollywood Smothers from NC State, and analysts believe an improved offensive line could finally unlock the ceiling everyone projected for Manning as a five-star recruit. He’s typically priced within a shade of Carr on the board, and a Texas team many consider the team to beat in the SEC only raises his profile.

Then there’s Trinidad Chambliss, whose rise from Division II transfer to SEC Newcomer of the Year to Heisman co-favorite is one of the sport’s more remarkable storylines. After winning the Ole Miss job in Week 3 last season, Chambliss threw for nearly 4,000 yards and helped push the Rebels to a College Football Playoff semifinal. He finished eighth in Heisman voting as a first-year starter, and after a legal push to secure a sixth year of eligibility, he’s back in Oxford with real buzz — at times listed as a co-favorite alongside Carr on some boards. His path likely runs through marquee non-conference-feeling matchups against Lane Kiffin’s LSU in Week 3 and against Manning’s Texas in Week 8, games that could double as Heisman moments if Chambliss delivers.

The Chasing Pack: Big Ten and Big 12 Threats

Ohio State enters the season with two players squarely in the mix. Julian Sayin returns after a sensational first full season as a starter, having completed roughly 77% of his passes for well over 3,600 yards and more than 30 touchdowns. His accuracy and quick decision-making are considered elite, though evaluators want to see the “year two leap” and improved mobility from the pocket. Alongside him is Jeremiah Smith, widely regarded as the best player in college football regardless of position. Smith caught 76 passes for roughly 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, and with longtime running mate Carnell Tate off to the NFL, he’s set to see an even heavier target share. Wide receivers face a steep uphill climb in Heisman voting — the last one to win was Alabama’s DeVonta Smith in 2020 — but several analysts, including Urban Meyer, have floated Smith as a genuine threat to break that drought.

Dante Moore, Oregon’s dual-threat quarterback, is another name to watch after passing for roughly 3,500-plus yards with 30 touchdowns and an elite completion percentage in 2025. Moore chose to return for another season rather than enter the draft, and with Oregon expected to contend again in the Big Ten, a strong start could push him firmly into the top tier. Indiana’s Josh Hoover and Miami transfer Darian Mensah — who threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 34 touchdowns while leading Duke to an ACC title before transferring to Coral Gables — round out a group of quarterbacks priced closely together in the +1000 to +1300 range on most boards.

Dark Horses and Sleepers Worth Tracking

Beyond the headline names, a handful of players carry real sleeper appeal. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton enters his first full season as the unquestioned starter after helping the Bulldogs to a 12-1 record and an SEC title as a first-year starter, completing better than 70% of his passes with 31 total touchdowns. He was reportedly at his best in clutch moments, completing an eye-catching share of his fourth-quarter throws against ranked opponents. LSU’s Sam Leavitt, a dual-threat transfer now playing for Lane Kiffin, has generated real buzz as a Heisman sleeper before ever taking a snap in Death Valley, thanks to his track record as a dynamic runner-thrower. Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, who helped lead the Aggies to their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance, is also frequently mentioned among “others to watch,” along with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Oklahoma’s John Mateer.

On the ground, Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy — the nation’s second-leading rusher in 2025 — and Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy have both drawn mentions on early watch lists, though running backs face the same historical headwinds as receivers in a quarterback-dominated award. Still, in a race this crowded, it doesn’t take much for a big-play skill player to crash the conversation if his team is winning.

What to Watch as the Season Approaches

History is not kind to preseason Heisman favorites — the award has gone to a player outside the top handful of odds more often than not in recent years, and voters tend to reward the quarterback (or occasional non-quarterback) who plays best on the biggest stages in November. That means head-to-head matchups will matter enormously this year: Notre Dame’s Carr opens against a brutal early schedule, Chambliss gets his signature chance against LSU and Texas, and Ohio State-Oregon in November could function as a de facto two-man Heisman showdown between Sayin/Smith and Moore. Playoff qualification remains the biggest single factor separating true contenders from stat-compilers, since Heisman voting wraps up before the postseason expands the sample.

For bettors looking to get a position on this race early, Heisman futures markets are already active at every major sportsbook, and lines will move fast once fall camps open and injury reports start rolling in. Anyone planning to shop for the best number on a Heisman future — or line up markets for Week 1 college football overall — should compare offers before locking anything in, and it’s worth checking out a FanDuel promo code for new-account offers ahead of the season.

Ultimately, this is shaping up to be a race defined by depth rather than a runaway favorite. Carr, Manning and Chambliss headline the board today, but Sayin, Smith, Moore, Stockton and a cluster of dark horses are all one big September or October away from rewriting the odds entirely. As fall camps open in the coming weeks, expect this list to keep shifting — and expect the eventual Heisman winner to look a little different than it does on July 20.