Indiana vs Ohio State: 2 Player Props and Predictions for Saturday, November 23

Few noteworthy matchups have occurred in the recent history of the Indiana-Ohio State rivalry. Across 97 meetings, the Hoosiers have won 12. They have lost 29 consecutive games to the Buckeyes, with the last victory coming in 1988. Anyone younger than 35 has never seen an Indiana victory in this series.

Cue the 2024 season and what has become a Cinderella story in a sport that now allows 12 teams to compete in the postseason for a championship. Indiana had never gone 10-0 to start a season in program history until now. First-year coach Curt Cignetti has the opportunity to solidify his program’s spot in the first expanded playoff with a win in Columbus on Saturday.

Point Spread for Indiana at Ohio State

The Hoosiers are 12-point underdogs in the Horseshoe, a strong dose of reality for a program that, while undefeated, has the 106th most challenging schedule in the country, according to ESPN FPI.

Following their closest game of the season, a 20-15 win over Michigan at home, Indiana has had two weeks to prepare for a matchup that could redefine the program that also just signed their new coach to an extension through 2032.

Ohio State has a lot to lose in this game. A loss at home as a double-digit favorite would eliminate them from conference championship consideration and hand them a second defeat, the combination of which could endanger their playoff position.

Is This Do or Die for the Buckeyes?

Both losses would have been to teams inside the top four, but it could constitute a massive disappointment for Ryan Day and company in a season where their archrival is 5-5 and they sidestepped the difficult environment of Beaver Stadium.

Offensively, these opponents are within two yards per game of each other. Indiana ranks 15th in the country in total offense, and Ohio State is 17th. In terms of total defense, the Buckeyes are second, with the Hoosiers right behind them in third.

Both of Ohio State’s running backs are averaging north of six yards per rush, while freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is second in the Big Ten in receiving yards. Indiana has two running backs with at least 500 rushing yards in 2024 and a transfer quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, who leads the conference in yards per pass attempt (10.1) and is third in TD passes.

Game Total for Indiana at Ohio State

The total for this matchup is 51.5 points. Ohio State gave up 32 points to the #1 Oregon Ducks during their only loss this year and has yet to allow another opponent to reach 20 points.

Indiana has given up 24 or more points twice, but not since early October against Northwestern.

TreVeyon Henderson UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards

Henderson’s workload has been capped at around 7-10 carries per game, with transfer Quinshon Judkins shouldering about 35% more rushing attempts this season. The senior has looked fresh as a result, posting 7.4 yards per rush across 89 carries and clearing the 50-yard mark all but once.

Nebraska is the team that Henderson managed just 25 rushing yards on 10 attempts against, and Indiana allows a full yard fewer per rush than the Huskers.

The Hoosiers’ 2.5-yard opponent rushing average ranks second in the country, and Henderson will be down yet another starting lineman after center Seth McLaughlin’s season was ended due to an Achilles injury. We expect Henderson to post modest numbers in limited opportunities.

Kurtis Rourke UNDER 0.5 Interceptions

Rourke has yet to throw an interception away from home this season, a reflection of the experience that the sixth-year player has been able to lean on while being surrounded with a roster capable of winning ten straight games in the Big Ten.

The schedule has taken it easy on Indiana to this point. Cignetti and Rourke will prioritize turnover limitation to ensure that the Buckeyes don’t pummel them for all eyes to see, potentially harming their bid for a playoff berth.

This is not to say that Rourke will be overly conservative, but that he understands the consequences of a mistake. Ohio State has seven picks in ten games and a less fearsome pass rush than most years, and Rourke will prove difficult to add to their interception total.