Dodgers vs. Braves NLDS Game 3 Prediction: Yamamoto Seeks Revenge on Sale at Truist Park

The Dodgers’ bid for a three-peat now runs through two of the best arms in baseball, and Game 3 of the NLDS is a true coin flip that will be decided on the mound at Truist Park.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers -1.5
• Why: Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets a crack at revenge after Chris Sale out-dueled him in August, and L.A.’s lineup is finally healthy enough to back him up
• The number to watch: Yamamoto’s 0.87 WHIP, second-best among all qualified MLB starters this season

Los Angeles and Atlanta split the first two games at Dodger Stadium, with the Dodgers taking Game 1 behind Tarik Skubal before the Braves clawed back in Game 2 to even the series heading into Atlanta. Now it shifts to Truist Park for Game 3, and the series is tied 1-1 with a best-of-five format that suddenly feels like a coin flip.

That tension is amplified by who’s on the mound. Yamamoto is set for his first start of this postseason, while Sale gets the ball for the first time since he handed the Dodgers a tough-luck 1-0 loss back on Aug. 27 — a game Yamamoto himself started.

Why the Market Still Likes L.A. Despite Getting Swept in the Regular Season

Oddsmakers have the Dodgers favored at roughly -1.5 on the run line with the moneyline sitting close to even money, and the total is set around 6.5 runs — a number that reflects just how dominant both starters have been. It’s a notable vote of confidence given the Braves won the regular-season series 5-1, outscoring the Dodgers 26-15 across six meetings, including a three-game sweep at this very ballpark in late August. The market isn’t ignoring that history; it’s pricing in that the Dodgers simply have the better roster when healthy, and that Yamamoto gives them a puncher’s chance to flip the script against the only team that genuinely gave them trouble all year.

Yamamoto’s Shot at Revenge, and Atlanta’s Bats Running Cold

Yamamoto enters with a 14-9 record, 2.53 ERA and that elite 0.87 WHIP, and he’s thrown well against this exact lineup before — he allowed just one run over 6 1/3 innings in that August start, only to lose when Drake Baldwin led off the game with a home run and Sale made it stand up. Sale, for his part, is in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career, posting a 1.96 ERA over his final 24 regular-season starts and carrying a 2.16 ERA into October, third-best in all of MLB. He opened his postseason by limiting Philadelphia to three runs over 6 1/3 innings in the Wild Card Series before closing out Game 3 with 1 1/3 scoreless innings of relief.

The difference-maker may end up being which lineup is actually hitting right now. Ronald Acuña Jr. is just 3-for-18 without an extra-base hit this postseason, and Matt Olson has struck out seven times in 19 at-bats — two of Atlanta’s most important bats going cold at the worst time. Michael Harris II has been the exception, riding an 8-for-20 start (.400) with two three-hit games into this one. On the other side, Freddie Freeman has quietly been swinging it well (3-for-7 with a homer) despite playing through right knee discomfort, while Andy Pages and Tommy Edman are both still searching for their first hits of the series.

The Braves have been outscored 26-15 by the Dodgers in the regular season, yet they’re a combined 5-1 against them — and four of those five wins came by one or two runs, meaning plenty of close, low-scoring battles rather than a true talent gap.

That gap between the scoring margin and the win total tells the real story: these are two teams that match up brutally even, and single-game variance — specifically, who gets the better version of two elite starters — tends to decide it. Shohei Ohtani is managing a right biceps and left knee issue of his own, which adds another layer of uncertainty to how aggressive Los Angeles can be on the bases and in the leadoff spot.

Both bullpens arrive rested. Atlanta’s trio of Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suárez and Dylan Lee is fully available after an off day, while Didier Fuentes and Ray Kerr are the only ones unavailable following heavy use on Sunday. If this game turns into the low-scoring battle both starters are capable of producing, bullpen depth late could matter as much as anything either lineup does. Bettors tracking the line movement here should also check FanDuel Promo Code offers before first pitch.

Prediction and Best Bet

This one should hinge on which ace blinks first. Yamamoto gets a legitimate crack at payback in a ballpark where he’s already proven he can keep Atlanta’s lineup in check, and with Freeman producing and the Braves’ top of the order struggling to find any rhythm, the Dodgers look like the side with more positive variance working in their favor tonight.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 4, Braves 2
2. Best Bet: Dodgers on the moneyline

Expect another tight, low-scoring battle, but Yamamoto’s control and L.A.’s deeper bullpen give the Dodgers the edge to reclaim the series lead.