Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction: Can LA Solve Nola’s Homer Problem in the Series Finale?

Dodgers vs. Phillies picks for July 22: Eric Lauer faces Aaron Nola in the rubber match at Citizens Bank Park. Odds, stats, and the best bet.

Earnest Horn July 22, 2026

The Dodgers already won this series and lost it in the same 24 hours, and now Eric Lauer has to keep the wheels from coming off in the finale at Citizens Bank Park.

Quick take:
Pick: Dodgers moneyline
Why: LA’s lineup is scoring in bunches against Philadelphia’s rotation this week, and Aaron Nola’s homer problem is a bad matchup against this specific group of hitters
The number to watch: Nola’s 1.45 WHIP and 23 home runs allowed this season

Los Angeles enters at 64-38 and still sits comfortably atop the NL West, but this series has been anything but comfortable. Trea Turner authored a 3-for-5, two-homer, five-RBI night in Philadelphia’s 10-7 series-opening win, then Justin Wrobleski and Max Muncy answered right back a night later, pushing the Dodgers to a 2-1 win behind six-plus shutout-adjacent innings. Philadelphia sits second in the NL East at 56-46, three games back, and the Phillies need every rubber match they can get if they want to close that gap before the deadline.

Why the Odds Have Shifted Late in This Series

The line opened close — Dodgers around -110/-120 depending on the book — and has held roughly there into Wednesday, with LA hovering near -112 to -120 on the moneyline and Philadelphia getting anywhere from even money to +100 as the home dog. The total sits at 9.5, and it’s traded both ways across the first two games of the series (Monday’s game went well over, Tuesday’s stayed under). That split total tells you this series has had two different faces: an offensive explosion in Game 1 and a pitcher’s duel in Game 2. Book pricing right now leans toward another lower-scoring look given the Lauer-Nola pairing, even though neither starter has been sharp this season.

The Numbers Side by Side

Season snapshot entering July 22, 2026
	Dodgers	Phillies
Record	64-38	56-46
Team ERA	3.56	4.24
Team OPS	.773	.717
Probable starter ERA	Lauer 4.81	Nola 5.68

Neither probable starter is having the season they want. Eric Lauer is 4-5 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP across 76.2 innings, hardly a shutdown arm, but he’s been serviceable enough that the Dodgers are 7-2 in games he’s started when they’re favored. Aaron Nola is the bigger concern for Philadelphia — a 3-7 record, 5.68 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 23 home runs allowed in 103 innings, numbers that would get most starters removed from a contender’s rotation. Against a Dodgers lineup that just hung 10 runs on Zack Wheeler less than 72 hours ago and got two homers apiece from Mookie Betts and Turner-adjacent chaos all series, Nola’s fly-ball tendencies are a real liability.

Turner’s Heater Meets a Lineup That Hits Back

Trea Turner is riding the hottest stretch of his season, and Don Mattingly has him hitting near the top of the order to try to keep it rolling. But this series has shown both teams can go off in bunches — Betts went 4-for-5 with two homers in the opener, only for the Dodgers bullpen and Wrobleski to shut Philadelphia down cold the very next night. That kind of swing usually means one team’s offense breaks through in the rubber match, and the Dodgers have the deeper, more complete lineup top to bottom, from Shohei Ohtani at the top to Kyle Tucker protecting the middle.

Nola has allowed a home run every 4.5 innings pitched this season.
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That single stat is the whole case against Philadelphia tonight. A rotation that can’t keep the ball in the park is dangerous against a lineup that’s already gone deep six times in two games this series. It doesn’t take much imagination to see a similar script play out at Citizens Bank Park, where the ball carries.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Dodgers have the pitching edge on paper and the recent form to back it up, even accounting for Monday’s blowup. Look for LA’s lineup to get to Nola early and for the bullpen — which has quietly stabilized since the All-Star break — to close it out. If you’re looking for a place to shop lines before first pitch, a DraftKings promo code is worth checking against the number here.