Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Prediction: Can Bubba Chandler’s Control Hold Up at Yankee Stadium?
The Yankees are favored at home against the Pirates on July 22, but Bubba Chandler's control issues could keep this one closer than the -1.5 spread suggests. Full pick and analysis.
The Yankees are favored by nearly two runs at home, but this Pirates offense just finished torching Cleveland’s pitching staff, and Bubba Chandler brings swing-and-miss stuff that could keep it a lot closer than the number suggests.
Quick take:
- Pick: Yankees -1.5
- Why: Max Fried’s command and a suddenly rejuvenated Yankees lineup should be enough against a shaky Chandler outing on the road
- The number to watch: Chandler has walked 55 batters in 94.1 innings this season — a 5.2 BB/9 rate that a patient Yankees lineup can exploit
Pittsburgh comes into Yankee Stadium at 52-49, sitting 11.5 games back in the NL Central but riding some real momentum — six wins in their last 10, capped by a 7-1 and 14-5 beatdown of Cleveland over the weekend. New York is 56-44 and just two games back of Tampa Bay in the AL East, though this version of the Yankees looks nothing like the team that opened the season 36-23 with Aaron Judge in the lineup.
Since Judge went down May 31 with what’s since been diagnosed as a stress fracture in his right rib — now a 60-day IL stint that won’t have him back before early August at the earliest — New York has had to piece together its offense without its best hitter. They’ve stabilized some (winners of two straight, 6-4 in their last 10), but this is a fundamentally different lineup than the one that started the year.
Why New York Is Still Laying the Number
The Yankees opened as roughly 1.5-run favorites and the market hasn’t budged much, sitting around -173 to -178 on the moneyline with the total at 8.5. Books are clearly still trusting the pitching matchup here more than the lineup card — Max Fried has been excellent in a corner Yankees rotation, and Chandler’s control issues have shown up on the road all year.
The Numbers Side by Side
| Pirates | Yankees | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 52-49 | 56-44 |
| Last 10 games | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Probable starter ERA | Chandler, 4.77 | Fried, 3.21 |
| Starter BB/9 | 5.25 | 2.77 |
Fried’s Control Against a Free-Swinging Approach
Max Fried has walked just 19 hitters in 61.2 innings this season, a sharp contrast to Chandler’s 55 walks in 94.1 frames. That command gap matters against a Pirates lineup that can be streaky — Bryan Reynolds has been Pittsburgh’s most consistent bat all year, hitting .282 with 14 home runs and a .873 OPS, and he’ll need a big night to keep pace with New York’s power bats.
Chandler is averaging more than five walks per nine innings this season — exactly the kind of free pass rate that a deep, patient Yankees lineup is built to punish.
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On the other side, Ben Rice has quietly been the Yankees’ best hitter in Judge’s absence, slugging .594 with 29 homers, and Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt give New York two more middle-of-the-order threats who don’t need Judge to make this offense functional. It’s not the same lineup from April, but it’s deep enough to make Chandler’s control problems a real liability tonight.
Pittsburgh isn’t without answers. Nick Gonzales and Enmanuel Valdez have both provided pop in the middle infield, and the Pirates’ recent stretch — including that 14-run explosion against Milwaukee — shows this offense can get hot in a hurry.
Prediction and Best Bet
Fried’s ability to limit free passes and induce weak contact should be the deciding factor against a Pirates staff working around Chandler’s control issues. Pittsburgh has enough thump to make it interesting, especially with Reynolds seeing good pitches, but the Yankees’ bullpen depth and home-field cushion push this one in New York’s favor. Bettors looking to shop lines before first pitch should check the latest DraftKings promo code for updated numbers on this total.
| Wed, Sep 16 • 6:41 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Milwaukee Brewers |  -1.5 (115) | -135 |  O 7.5 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |  +1.5 (-155) |  +116 | U 7.5 (-110) |
The pick:
- Prediction: Yankees 6, Pirates 3
- Best Bet: Yankees -1.5
Fried’s command edge and New York’s power bats should be enough to cover at home, even with Chandler capable of missing bats when his control is on.