Yankees vs. Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Judge-less New York Faces LA’s Deep Lineup on July 18
The Dodgers took Game 1 without a homer, and now Emmet Sheehan gets a Yankees lineup still missing Aaron Judge. Full odds, stats, and the best bet for Saturday night at Yankee Stadium.
The Dodgers just took Game 1 of this series without needing a single home run, and now they send a struggling Emmet Sheehan to the mound against a Yankees lineup that’s still missing its best hitter.
Quick take:
- Pick: Dodgers -1.5
- Why: Los Angeles is the deeper, healthier roster in a park-neutral pitching matchup, and New York is playing without Aaron Judge for the foreseeable future.
- The number to watch: Shohei Ohtani is riding a 38-game on-base streak, the longest active mark in the majors.
Saturday’s rematch at Yankee Stadium pits a Dodgers club that’s won five of its last 10 against a Yankees team clinging to the top AL Wild Card spot at 54-43, 2.5 games back of Tampa Bay in the AL East. Los Angeles enters at a gaudy 62-36, still the best record in the National League despite a rash of pitching injuries that have hollowed out its rotation depth. New York, meanwhile, is trying to answer a lineup question that hasn’t gone away in six weeks: how do you replace Aaron Judge?
This is only the second meeting of the season between these two franchises, and it carries plenty of juice on its own even without a playoff stake attached. Both clubs are dealing with significant absences on the pitching side, and both are counting on complementary bats to pick up slack that would normally fall to their top-of-the-order stars.
Judge has been out since June 5 with a stress fracture in his first right rib, and as of this week he still hasn’t resumed baseball activities. The Yankees captain says he believes he’ll play again this season, but there’s no rehab timetable yet, which means New York is likely playing the rest of July and well into August without its best bat.
Why the Number Moved Toward Los Angeles
The Dodgers opened as modest road underdogs and have crept toward pick’em territory as the market digests both Friday’s 2-1 win and the pitching matchup. New York sits at -110 on the moneyline with Los Angeles at -106, essentially a coin flip, while the run line has the Dodgers as 1.5-run favorites at +152. The total sits at 9, and with both starters trending toward hittable outings lately, the over has drawn steady action. Bettors shopping for the best number on this one should check a DraftKings promo code before locking in a side.
The Numbers Side by Side
| Yankees | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 54-43 (5-5 L10) | 62-36 (5-5 L10) |
| Runs scored/allowed | 463 / 373 | 508 / 358 |
| Starter tonight | Ryan Weathers, 3-7, 4.15 ERA | Emmet Sheehan, 4-6, 4.81 ERA |
| Key hitter (season OPS) | Missing Aaron Judge (.888 OPS in 31 games before injury) | Shohei Ohtani, .943 OPS, 22 HR |
A Lineup Built to Punish Mistakes
Sheehan has had a rough stretch, posting a 6.00 ERA in June, and he’ll walk into a Dodgers lineup that doesn’t need to lean on one player to do damage. Ohtani is hitting .289 with 22 home runs and a .943 OPS, but Freddie Freeman (.287, 15 homers, .853 OPS) and Mookie Betts have both been steady complementary threats even while battling their own inconsistency at points this year. The Dodgers also got a two-run homer swing in Friday’s win without needing Ohtani or Betts to go deep, a sign of the lineup’s depth even amid a rotation that’s been decimated by injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Gavin Stone.
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New York’s issue isn’t talent, it’s subtraction. Losing Judge for this stretch removes the one hitter who can single-handedly change a game’s math, and Weathers has given up four-plus earned runs in four of his last eight starts. He’s also 6-11-0 against the spread this season when he takes the ball, a rough number for a Yankees team that needs length from its rotation more than ever with Judge out.
Weathers has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last eight starts.
That volatility matters against a Dodgers order that makes pitchers work all night. Friday’s series opener only produced three combined runs, but both bullpens were taxed doing it, and neither starter tonight profiles as a lock to go deep into the game. That’s the connective tissue between the run total and the side: expect more traffic on the bases than Friday, and expect the deeper roster to cash in on more of it.
Prediction and Best Bet
Los Angeles has the healthier roster, the better recent form against quality pitching, and a lineup that doesn’t collapse when one hitter has a quiet night. New York is fighting to stay ahead in the Wild Card race, but doing it without Judge against a team with this much offensive firepower is a tall order for a Weathers-led rotation night.
| Sat, Sep 12 • 1:36 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New York Mets |  +1.5 (-143) |  +158 |  O 8.5 (106) |
| New York Yankees | -1.5 (114) |  -177 | U 8 (-106) |
The pick:
- Prediction: Dodgers 6, Yankees 3
- Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5
Bettors weighing the moneyline should also keep an eye on the total, since both bullpens are already banged up entering the weekend.