2026 Home Run Derby Odds: Kyle Schwarber Favored, But Is Junior Caminero the Real Value at Citizens Bank Park?

The Home Run Derby is coming home to Philadelphia, and for the first time in its history, you won’t find it on your regular cable lineup. The 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby goes down Monday, July 13 at Citizens Bank Park, hosting its first All-Star Game since 1996, with a hometown favorite as the betting board’s clear top choice and a loaded field ready to put on a show during MLB All-Star Week.

Schwarber Enters as the Betting Favorite in His Own Backyard

Kyle Schwarber has been must-watch television all season, and now he gets to do his damage in front of the Phillies faithful. The DH leads all of MLB with 32 home runs entering the Derby and comes in as the odds-on favorite at +340 on the FanDuel/BetMGM consensus board. Schwarber led the National League with 56 homers a season ago, and there’s an obvious case that no one in the field is better equipped to put on a show at Citizens Bank Park than the guy who calls it home. If you’re looking at FanDuel promo code offers to get a piece of the Derby markets, Schwarber’s number is the one shaping the entire board.

Caminero’s Case as the Real Favorite

Just below Schwarber on the board sits Junior Caminero at +425, and there’s a strong argument he should be shorter. The Rays third baseman has been on an absolute tear, launching 11 home runs in an 11-day stretch from June 23 through July 4 alone, and he brings elite bat speed to Philadelphia — his exit velocity profile ranks in the 100th percentile in baseball. Caminero has 27 homers on the season, just five behind Schwarber, and his raw power translates directly into pull-side pop that plays perfectly in a Derby format. Several analysts, including BetMGM’s own staff, have flagged Caminero as undervalued given his current form. Bettors comparing BetMGM promo code markets against other books may find value hiding in plain sight here.

The Rest of the Field and Full Odds Board

Behind the top two, the field gets interesting fast. Here’s how the full eight-man bracket shakes out on odds and season home run totals entering the event.

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) — 32 HRs, +340
• Junior Caminero (Rays) — 27 HRs, +425
• Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) — 20 HRs, +470
• Jordan Walker (Cardinals) — 22 HRs, +600
• Jac Caglianone (Royals) — 14 HRs, +650
• Bryce Harper (Phillies) — 20 HRs, +850
• Ben Rice (Yankees) — 25-29 HRs, +900
• Willson Contreras (Red Sox) — 20 HRs, +1100

One notable absence looms over the bracket: Cal Raleigh, last year’s Derby champion, is not participating in 2026.

Two Dark Horses Worth a Long Look

Munetaka Murakami arrives with the kind of raw power that makes scouts and bettors alike take notice. The White Sox slugger has hit a 451-foot home run this season and has produced multiple batted balls at 114-plus mph exit velocity — numbers that suggest he has the pure strength to put on a show regardless of his 20-homer regular-season total. Bleacher Report actually pegs Murakami to win the whole thing, projecting an epic final-round showdown with Schwarber. At +470, he’s priced as a live third option rather than a true afterthought.

Then there’s Jac Caglianone, who enters with the fewest home runs in the field at just 14, yet somehow leads every participant in one crucial category: average home run distance at 419 feet. That’s the profile of a hitter who turns into an absolute wrecking ball when teeing off with no defense to worry about. Derby history is littered with lower seed sluggers who overperform their regular-season power numbers once locked into pure distance mode, and Caglianone’s average-distance lead makes him one of the more intriguing long shots at +650.

Harper and Rice Round Out the Contenders

Bryce Harper gives Philadelphia a second hometown rooting interest, and while his +850 price reflects a lower home run total than some of the other entrants, his home-park numbers are legitimate — his .924 OPS at Citizens Bank Park towers over his .819 mark on the road. Ben Rice of the Yankees, one of this year’s first-time All-Stars in a rookie-heavy class, brings one of the better underlying metrics in the field: his home run-to-fly ball ratio of 28.9% ranks second in all of MLB. At +900, that quality-over-quantity power could make him a sneaky value play. Willson Contreras closes out the board as the longest shot at +1100.

How to Watch the 2026 Home Run Derby

This is the biggest change to the event in years: the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby will not air on linear cable television. For the first time ever, it streams exclusively live on Netflix, with the main event beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET and pre-Derby coverage kicking off around 7:00 p.m. ET. Any active Netflix subscription works to watch, from the Standard with Ads tier at $8.99 a month up through Premium 4K at $26.99 a month — there’s no separate pay-per-view purchase required. One important note for cord-cutters who typically lean on MLB.TV: that service is blacked out from streaming the Derby live due to Netflix’s exclusivity window, so you’ll need the Netflix app specifically to catch the action as it happens. Canadian viewers can access regional All-Star Week coverage through Sportsnet.

Betting Angle: Where the Value Might Be

The board makes plenty of sense on the surface — Schwarber’s raw power and home-park comfort make him the obvious chalk. But Derby history rewards bettors who dig one layer deeper than season-long home run totals. Caminero’s recent surge and elite bat speed make him a legitimate threat to the favorite at a shorter price than his current form probably deserves, while Murakami’s max exit velocity readings and Caglianone’s distance-per-swing profile suggest either could be live in a way their regular-season power numbers don’t fully capture. For those exploring markets beyond the straight winner bet, a look at McLuck Promo Code offers or other sweepstakes casinos hub content can be a fun complement to Derby night. Whoever wins, expect a night full of moonshots at Citizens Bank Park.

Prediction and Best Bet

This one sets up as a legitimate coin flip between the favorite and the hottest bat in the field. Schwarber’s home-park edge and MLB-leading power make him impossible to fade outright, but Caminero’s recent stretch and elite bat speed metrics make him the sharper number on the board relative to his true odds. The safest angle isn’t picking a winner outright — it’s recognizing that this field is deep enough that a Murakami or Caglianone longshot finish wouldn’t be a shock, either.