Twins vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Cole Looks to Snap New York’s Skid on July 3
Twins vs. Yankees odds, picks and predictions for July 3 at Yankee Stadium, with Gerrit Cole facing rookie Mike Paredes in a key AL matchup.
The Bronx hosts another chapter of an old American League rivalry on Friday night as the Minnesota Twins visit the New York Yankees for the opener of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees enter at 48-38, sitting second in the AL East, while the Twins come in at 42-46, third in the AL Central. New York has stumbled badly of late, losing seven straight, while Minnesota has won its last game and arrives on a modest hot streak over its last two-plus weeks.
Why the Market Still Trusts the Yankees Despite the Skid
Books have not wavered much on New York even amid the losing streak. The Yankees are set as home favorites at -180 on the moneyline, with the Twins sitting at +158 as the road underdog. The run line has New York at -1.5 (+112) and Minnesota at +1.5 (-125), while the total sits at 9.5, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -115. That gap reflects the pitching matchup as much as anything: Gerrit Cole gets the ball for New York, while Minnesota turns to rookie right-hander Mike Paredes, who is making just his fourth big league start. Bettors comparing lines across DraftKings Promo Code offers and other major books will find largely the same shape, with Cole’s track record and home-field advantage keeping the Yankees short favorites even with the club stuck in a rut.
Cole’s Command Against a Twins Lineup Finding Its Groove
Cole carries a 2-3 record with a 4.06 ERA and 34 strikeouts into the start, numbers that look pedestrian by his own standard but still represent the most reliable arm in this series. Paredes, by contrast, is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 13 strikeouts across his brief audition in the Twins rotation. Minnesota has actually gone 3-1 against the spread in his four starts, and the club won all three games in which he was tabbed as the moneyline underdog, so the rookie has shown some knack for keeping his team competitive even without gaudy individual numbers.
Where Minnesota can do damage is at the plate. Catcher Ryan Jeffers has been one of the best hitters in the sport this season, batting .295 with a .949 OPS, seven home runs and 26 RBI in just 37 games. Left fielder Trevor Larnach is hitting .291 with a .381 on-base percentage, and Byron Buxton enters July slashing .268/.325/.573 with 25 home runs, tied for the American League lead, despite managing a nagging hip issue that has kept him day-to-day. The Twins have hit .281 as a team with 25 homers over their last 16 games, a stretch that has carried them to 10 wins in that span after taking two of three in Houston.
New York’s lineup is missing its biggest bat, with Aaron Judge still working back from a stress fracture in his first rib that has sidelined him since early June and could keep him out into August. Cody Bellinger has helped fill the void, hitting .267 with 11 home runs, 49 RBI and 10 stolen bases while posting an .823 OPS in left field. Third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. has also provided thump in the middle of the order. Fans checking an expected value calculator before placing a bet on this total should note that both bullpens have been shaky of late, which is part of why oddsmakers set the number at 9.5 rather than lower.
History leans heavily toward the home team here. New York holds a commanding all-time edge in the series, and Minnesota has won just five of its last 30 games played at Yankee Stadium. The Twins did take four of six meetings between the clubs a season ago, so this is not an automatic Yankees series sweep, but the venue has been a house of horrors for Minnesota in recent years. Bettors shopping lines with a FanDuel promo code or a BetMGM promo code can find slightly different run line pricing depending on the book, which matters given how tight the number is on the -1.5 side.
| Sat, Sep 12 • 4:11 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Cleveland Guardians |  +1.5 (-220) |  -109 |  O 8.5 (100) |
| Minnesota Twins | +1.5 (-186) | -104 | U 8.5 (-122) |
Prediction and Best Bet
Cole’s stuff and the crowd at Yankee Stadium should be enough to snap New York’s losing streak, even against a Twins offense that has been swinging it well. Minnesota’s rookie starter has been resilient, but asking him to shut down a lineup missing only Judge, not Bellinger or Chisholm, is a tall order in his fourth career start.
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- Prediction: Yankees 6, Twins 3
- Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 on the run line
Taking New York to cover the run line makes more sense here than laying the heavier moneyline price, since Cole has been sharp enough at home and Paredes’ inexperience figures to show up at some point across six-plus innings. Value hunters comparing a Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code against other offers, or checking sportsbooks in New York for the best number, should find the Yankees -1.5 at plus-money to be the sharpest way to attack this series opener.