Chip Honcho Preakness 2026: Why the Fresh Shooter at 5-1 May Be the Most Dangerous Horse in the Field
Chip Honcho skipped the Kentucky Derby chaos and arrives at Pimlico as a fresh shooter with elite speed figures. Here is why he may be the most dangerous horse in the 2026 Preakness Stakes at 5-1.
When the dust settled on the 2026 Kentucky Derby, Golden Tempo emerged as the winner and the toast of Churchill Downs. But back in February, a horse named Chip Honcho finished the Risen Star Stakes 5½ lengths in front of that very same Derby winner — and then spent the next two months quietly preparing for a Preakness Stakes target that now looks like one of the smartest training decisions of the year. At 5-1 on the morning line, Chip Honcho is not just a live longshot. He may be the most legitimately dangerous horse in the entire 14-horse field.
The Risen Star Benchmark That Reframes Everything
The single most important number attached to Chip Honcho heading into Saturday’s race is this: 5½ lengths. That’s how far ahead of Golden Tempo he finished in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds on February 14. Yes, he finished second — a half-length behind Paladin — but the performance was genuinely elite. His Beyer Speed Figure came back a 92, and his Ragozin sheet figure was a 7, which is a number that elite analysts associate with top-tier three-year-old performances this early in the year.
What makes the Risen Star result so significant is what it tells us now that Golden Tempo has won the Kentucky Derby. That is the benchmark. Chip Honcho at his best was comfortably ahead of the horse who just navigated a 20-horse field at Churchill Downs and earned a roses blanket. The Preakness field does not include Golden Tempo. If Chip Honcho runs back to his Risen Star form, nobody in this race matches that ceiling.
For that race, trainer Steve Asmussen also made a key equipment change: the blinkers came off. The result was one of the most polished performances of Chip Honcho’s young career.
Throwing Out the Louisiana Derby
The one blemish on Chip Honcho’s recent record is the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 21, where he finished fifth and posted a Beyer of just 73. Bettors who stop there are missing the full picture. Asmussen acknowledged after the race that the trip was a disaster — drawn on the outside, Chip Honcho was forced wide throughout, his rhythm was disrupted, and he never got into a comfortable position. Asmussen did not offer excuses, which is actually telling: when a Hall of Fame trainer with over 11,000 wins says there was no good excuse, he is acknowledging the race was lost to circumstance, not ability.
A 19-point Beyer drop following a wide, compromised trip is entirely consistent with trip-related underperformance. Toss the Louisiana Derby, lean on the Risen Star. That is where the real Chip Honcho lives.
The Asmussen-Ortiz Connection and the Early Voting Echo
Steve Asmussen is not just a Hall of Fame trainer with a record number of wins in North American racing. He has a specific, documented edge in the Preakness Stakes: when he deliberately targets the race — rather than running a horse back from the Derby — he is two-for-two. He won it with Curlin in 2007 and again with Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Chip Honcho skipped the Kentucky Derby entirely. This was always the plan. Asmussen looked at the draw and the post and called it perfect. “I said, ‘5 through 7.’ So got the six. That’s perfect,” he said after the post position draw.
The jockey angle is equally compelling. Jose Ortiz just completed one of the most remarkable weekends in recent Thoroughbred racing history. He won the 2026 Kentucky Oaks aboard Always a Runner and the Kentucky Derby aboard Golden Tempo — becoming only the ninth jockey in history to complete the Oaks/Derby double in the same year. He arrives at Pimlico not just in form, but in the kind of confidence that comes from riding two classics in three days and winning both.
And there is a pattern here that serious handicappers will recognize. In 2022, Ortiz won the Preakness Stakes aboard Early Voting — a horse that, just like Chip Honcho, skipped the Kentucky Derby and was pointed directly at Pimlico by his connections. The strategy worked then. The connections are betting it works again. If you are looking for a reason to trust this setup at 5-1, the Early Voting echo is impossible to ignore.
Workouts, Post Draw, and What to Expect Saturday
Chip Honcho has been training well since the Louisiana Derby. On Derby morning, May 2, he put in a five-furlong work in 1:00.0 — a solid, purposeful drill. On May 11 at Churchill Downs, he went a half-mile in 50.2 seconds, galloping out to five furlongs in 1:02.6 and six furlongs in 1:15.2. These are the numbers of a horse ready to run a big race, not one who is still finding his legs after a prep race setback.
Post 6 at Pimlico is widely considered a favorable draw, and Asmussen’s public enthusiasm about landing it confirms the connections feel the same way. At 1 3/16 miles on a track that tends to favor horses with tactical speed and the ability to settle, Chip Honcho’s profile fits perfectly. With Ortiz in the irons and a clean trip from post 6, a Beyer rebound into the 100-103 range or better is entirely realistic.
A Quick Look at the Rest of the Field
The 14-horse Preakness field is competitive, but it has holes. Iron Honor (9-2) is the morning-line favorite after winning the Gotham Stakes (G3), though he finished seventh in the Wood Memorial and has not yet faced this level of company. Taj Mahal (5-1) is undefeated in three starts but has raced exclusively at Laurel Park against limited competition. Ocelli (6-1) ran a creditable third in the Derby as a 70-1 maiden but faces a significant class jump in winning expectations. Napoleon Solo (8-1) won the 2025 Champagne Stakes (G1) as a juvenile but has been inconsistent since. Incredibolt (5-1), who finished sixth in the Derby, brings that experience to Pimlico but not a compelling recent form line.
None of these horses carry a Ragozin figure of 7 or a Risen Star-level performance against the eventual Kentucky Derby winner. Chip Honcho does.
The Bottom Line on Chip Honcho
The case for Chip Honcho at 5-1 is not a shot in the dark. It is built on a legitimate elite speed figure, a clear and explainable bad trip in his only clunker, a Hall of Fame trainer with a perfect record when targeting this specific race, and a jockey who is red-hot and has won this race before under nearly identical conditions. His sire, Connect — a son of the 2007 Preakness winner Curlin — gives him a bloodline built for Pimlico. The fresh shooter angle removes any Derby fatigue from the equation. Everything about this horse’s profile points toward a big Saturday.
If you are looking to get involved with the 2026 Preakness Stakes at a sportsbook, this is the kind of value play worth backing. Whether you use a DraftKings Promo Code or a FanDuel Promo Code to boost your first wager, Chip Honcho at 5-1 represents one of the more compelling cases in the field. The fresh shooter, the elite figure, the Asmussen angle, the Ortiz factor — it all points in the same direction.