3 MLB Strikeout Props to Target for Friday, April 10
Three pitching matchups set up perfectly for strikeout prop bettors on Friday, April 10 — here's the case for Chase Burns, Kris Bubic, and Emerson Hancock.
Good morning, and Happy Friday, baseball lovers! We split a pair of strikeout props yesterday, as we won with Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts but lost with Max Meyer Over 5.5 Strikeouts. We’re sitting right at even for the week, so let’s break through tonight with some solid winners. For those that are interested, I also have a best bet posted on the Giants vs Orioles game for this evening.
Friday’s MLB slate has a trio of strikeout prop opportunities worth putting your money behind. From a young flamethrower mowing through the Angels to a crafty lefty facing the worst lineup in baseball, these three plays offer genuine value heading into the weekend. Here’s the breakdown on Chase Burns, Kris Bubic, and Emerson Hancock.
Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Chase Burns has been nothing short of electric in his first two starts of the 2026 season. The 23-year-old Cincinnati Reds right-hander struck out seven in five innings against Pittsburgh to open the year, then went out and punched out nine Texas Rangers in six innings in his follow-up start. That’s 16 strikeouts in just 11 innings of work — a 13.1 K/9 rate that puts him among the most dominant arms in the National League early in the season. He has already cleared the 7.5 threshold in one of his two outings and came close in the other, showing this line is well within reach every time he takes the hill.
The matchup against the Los Angeles Angels is about as favorable as it gets. The Angels have been one of the more strikeout-prone lineups in the American League, lacking consistent contact hitters throughout their order. Burns generates swings and misses at an elite clip — his stuff profile features a lively fastball and a devastating secondary offering that tunnels exceptionally well. His career strikeout numbers across the minors have consistently been in the 11-15 K/9 range, and his brief MLB sample in 2026 suggests he’s translating those skills to the big stage without any hiccup. FanGraphs projects him for a 10.24-to-11.80 K/9 pace for the full season, making even a conservative line like 7.5 look beatable against this opponent.
At -130, Burns Over 7.5 is not cheap, but the price is justified. He’s already posted 7 or more strikeouts in both of his 2026 regular-season starts, and the Angels present minimal resistance to a pitcher with his arsenal. The real risk here is pitch count or a hook early from the Reds’ manager, but with Burns commanding the zone effectively — he’s walking under two batters per nine innings through two starts — expect him to stay deep enough into the game to rack up the strikeouts. This is a confident play at the number.
Kris Bubic Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Kris Bubic drew one of the most favorable matchups a pitcher can ask for: the Chicago White Sox. Chicago has been one of the worst lineups in the American League for strikeouts, and Bubic is coming off a start in which he fanned eight Milwaukee Brewers in just five innings of work. That performance on April 5 showed off the kind of swing-and-miss ability that made Bubic a rotation staple for Kansas City. He sits at 12 strikeouts across 11 innings in 2026, and his 38% whiff rate on Statcast is a number that demand attention when you’re looking for strikeout upside in a prop market.
Bubic’s five-pitch arsenal — four-seamer, changeup, sweeper, sinker, and slider — gives him the weapons to attack a lineup like Chicago’s from multiple angles. His changeup has been a particularly lethal offering early in 2026, generating chase contact at an impressive clip. In 2025, Bubic posted 116 strikeouts in 116.1 innings across a full season of work, proving he can be a volume strikeout producer when healthy and confident. Getting him at plus money against the White Sox, a club that consistently ranks near the top of the league in strikeouts allowed, is a gift from the books.
Over 5.5 at +108 is flat-out value. Bubic doesn’t need to be perfect — he just needs to pitch into the fifth or sixth inning and let the White Sox swing through his offspeed stuff. Even in his quieter opener against Minnesota, he still collected four strikeouts in six innings. With a much weaker opponent in front of him Friday night at Kauffman Stadium, and the home crowd behind him, there’s a strong case Bubic approaches or surpasses the eight-strikeout mark. This is the kind of plus-money prop you don’t overthink.
Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150) (BetMGM)
Emerson Hancock has looked sharp in his first two starts of 2026 — a 0.71 ERA across 12.2 innings is eye-catching — but the strikeout volume is where things get complicated. His nine-strikeout gem against Cleveland was outstanding, but it masks the full picture: against the Angels in his second start, Hancock managed just five strikeouts in 6.2 innings. Now he faces the Houston Astros, a lineup with veteran hitters who have made a career out of making pitchers work, staying disciplined at the plate, and putting balls in play. This is not a matchup that sets up well for a big strikeout day.
Hancock’s career profile tells a similar story. Over 39 career appearances — 33 starts — he has 123 strikeouts in 175.1 innings, a 6.3 K/9 rate. That translates to roughly 3.8 strikeouts per six innings of work at his career pace, and most projection systems have him in the 7.0-to-7.6 K/9 range for 2026. Against a team like Houston, which has historically suppressed opposing strikeout totals through disciplined plate appearances and aggressive early-count swings, expect Hancock to operate more efficiently through contact rather than racking up whiffs. The Astros don’t give you free strikeouts — you have to earn them.
The price at -150 is steep, but it reflects a scenario the numbers genuinely support. Hancock’s one truly high-strikeout effort came against Cleveland, a lineup with a different profile than Houston’s veteran-laden order. The Astros figure to put the ball in play early, challenge Hancock in the zone, and keep his pitch count manageable — which could also limit his innings. Whether Hancock goes five or six innings Friday, the under at 4.5 feels like the right side of the number. Back the under with confidence and let the Astros’ contact-first approach do the work.