Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction Market Odds: Minnesota Favored at 59.5% Without Edwards
Prediction markets give Minnesota a 59.5% edge over Golden State, and the sportsbook lines tell the same story as the Timberwolves host the Warriors without Anthony Edwards.
The Golden State Warriors (1-3) travel to Target Center on Wednesday night to face the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1), with tip-off set for 8:00 PM ET. Prediction markets and sportsbooks both lean toward the home side, but the numbers tell an interesting story about how much one injury is moving the market.
What the Prediction Market Is Pricing In
On Polymarket, Minnesota sits at 59.5% to win with Golden State at 40.5%, and roughly $158,000 has changed hands on this game in the last 24 hours. Those percentages translate to an implied price of about 60 cents on the Timberwolves and 40 cents on the Warriors, which is a modest edge rather than a heavy lean for a home team with the better record.
That number is notably softer than where the market stood earlier in the week. One prediction-market read published on October 26 had Minnesota near 78%, so the move down to 59.5% reflects a real shift in information, and the biggest piece of it is the status of Anthony Edwards.
Sportsbook Lines vs. the Market
Sportsbook numbers line up with the prediction market’s more cautious tone. Golden State is listed as a 3.5-point underdog at -110, with some listings showing the line as high as 4.5 depending on the book. The Warriors moneyline is posted around +136, and totals are hovering in the 227.5 to 229.5 range.
A +136 moneyline implies roughly a 42% chance of a Warriors win before the sportsbook’s margin is removed, which sits very close to the 40.5% Polymarket assigns them. When two independent pricing sources land within a couple of percentage points of each other, the information is usually being absorbed the same way across the board. Anyone weighing a prediction markets vs. sports betting approach will notice both are telling the same story here.
Projections from RotoWire have the Timberwolves scoring 116.3 and the Warriors 112.8, a gap of 3.5 points that matches the posted spread almost exactly.
The Edwards Factor
CBS Sports led its preview with the news that Minnesota is hosting Golden State without the injured Edwards, and that the team has to prepare for life without him for the foreseeable future. That matters because Edwards is the Timberwolves’ scoring engine, leading the team at 33.3 points per game this season. Replacing that much offensive production is difficult on any night, and it helps explain why Minnesota is only a 3.5-point favorite despite owning the better record and home court.
The Wolves still have Rudy Gobert anchoring the interior at 14.3 rebounds per game. Minnesota is 3-1 overall and 3-1 over its last 10, holding sixth place in the West.
Golden State’s Early-Season Profile
The Warriors are 1-3, 12th in the West, and 1-3 in their last 10. Stephen Curry has been the one constant, averaging 23.7 points per game while shooting 52.6% from the field and a perfect 100% at the free-throw line. That kind of efficiency from a high-volume shooter is what keeps a team in games even while the record looks shaky.
RotoWire’s projected Golden State starting five features Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Yaxel Lendeborg, Gui Santos and Draymond Green, though lineups are always subject to change closer to tip-off. Golden State is 1-3 against Minnesota in the 2025-26 season series, even though the Warriors lead the all-time head-to-head 79-64.
How to Read the Totals
The over/under range of 227.5 to 229.5 sits just above the 229.1 combined points RotoWire projects, so the total offers little cushion in either direction. With Edwards out, Minnesota’s offense loses its highest-volume scorer, while Golden State’s offense runs through a shooter hitting over half his field goals. Those competing forces are why the total and the spread both look efficiently priced, and why the most useful edge for bettors is shopping for the best number rather than hunting for a mispriced market.
Market Read and Takeaway
The data points in one direction: Minnesota is the more probable winner, but not by the margin its record suggests. The prediction market, the sportsbook moneyline and the projection-based spread all converge around a three-to-four point game, with the Edwards absence acting as the great equalizer. If Curry’s efficiency holds and Golden State keeps it within a possession or two late, the +3.5 line is where the debate will be settled.
With a spread that ranges from 3.5 to 4.5 across books, comparing numbers matters more than usual. Check the current price at a book like FanDuel before locking anything in, and treat the roughly 60/40 prediction-market split as a useful sanity check rather than a guarantee. Tip-off from Minneapolis is 8:00 PM ET.