Texas Rises to No. 1 in AP Poll and Coaches Poll After Historic Comeback Win Over Ohio State, Reshaping CFP Championship Odds
Texas' 20-point fourth-quarter comeback over Ohio State vaulted the Longhorns to No. 1 in both major polls for the first time since 1965 -- and reshaped the College Football Playoff championship betting market almost overnight.
Texas is the No. 1 team in college football for the first time in a regular season since 1965 after the Longhorns erased a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit to stun then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 on Saturday night in Austin. The Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday vaulted Texas from No. 4 to No. 1 with 56 first-place votes, while the Longhorns also grabbed the top spot in the Coaches Poll. Ohio State cratered from No. 1 to No. 6, its first trip outside the top five in two seasons.
The result reshuffles the entire national championship race just two weeks into the season. Arch Manning and Texas trailed 23-3 in the fourth quarter in front of 105,044 fans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, the third-largest crowd in program history, before ripping off three straight touchdown drives of 15, 13 and 12 plays to complete what Sportradar confirmed is the largest fourth-quarter rally ever against an AP No. 1 team. Hollywood Smothers punched in the winning score on a 1-yard run with 25 seconds left.
How Texas Pulled Off the Comeback
Ohio State controlled the first three quarters behind quarterback Julian Sayin and receiver Jeremiah Smith, who caught eight passes for 164 yards and a touchdown before Texas shut him out over the final period. Manning, who had struggled at times to match preseason Heisman hype, completed 11 of his final 15 passes and finished 23-of-37 for 196 yards and a touchdown while adding 24 rushing yards on eight carries. His touchdown pass to Ryan Wingo ignited the rally, and Steve Sarkisian credited the quarterback’s poise for turning the game around. “His grit started it,” Sarkisian said, calling it the biggest home win of his Texas tenure and the largest comeback of his coaching career. It marked Texas’ first win over Ohio State in three meetings across the past three seasons, avenging last year’s season-opening loss that had knocked the Longhorns from the top spot.
Ohio State’s collapse marked the first time a No. 1 team had blown a 20-point fourth-quarter lead since 2004, and it dropped the Buckeyes to 1-1 with the loss coming against Power Four competition for the third straight time dating back to last season. The Big Ten program’s stay in the top five, uninterrupted for two years, is over, and Ohio State now sits behind a new-look group of Georgia at No. 2, Notre Dame at No. 3, Indiana at No. 4 and Miami rounding out the top five after climbing on the strength of Ohio State’s fall.
What the Rankings Shakeup Means for the CFP Betting Market
The market reacted immediately to Texas’ rise and Ohio State’s tumble. FanDuel moved Texas into the outright favorite spot to win the College Football Playoff at +600, up from +750 before kickoff, with Ohio State, Notre Dame and Georgia bunched behind at +650. BetMGM’s board tells a similar story, listing Ohio State and Texas within a half-length of each other at +550 and +600, respectively, with Georgia and Notre Dame both priced at +700. On the prediction-market side, Kalshi had Texas’ national title probability climbing from 11% after Week 1 to 14% following the win, moving the Longhorns ahead of both Notre Dame and Ohio State in that format, even as Ohio State’s number there barely budged, slipping just a point to 11%.
Not every book has fully bought into a Texas takeover at the top of the market — some outlets still list Ohio State’s national championship price shorter than Texas’ despite the loss, a reflection of how deep and talented the Buckeyes’ roster remains even after an ugly result. But the broader trend across sportsbooks and prediction markets is unmistakable: Texas’ equity in the national title conversation has strengthened measurably, while Ohio State’s playoff seeding path has grown murkier with the Buckeyes still facing Oregon, Indiana and USC before the season is out. For bettors tracking CFP futures, this week’s line movement reflects a genuine restructuring of the sport’s power hierarchy rather than a one-week overreaction, with Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana and Miami all jockeying for position behind a Texas team that now controls its own path to the No. 1 overall seed.