Cubs vs. Mets Prediction, Picks and Odds: June 25, 2026

The Chicago Cubs close out their three-game series at Citi Field on Thursday night, entering the finale having already secured two victories against the struggling New York Mets. Chicago brings a 42-37 record into this contest, while the Mets sit at 34-45 and continue to disappoint at home, going just 18-20 at Citi Field this season. With the NL Wild Card race tightening, every game matters for the Cubs, and they have a real chance to finish this sweep in convincing fashion.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET, and this is shaping up to be a battle between a Cubs offense that has been clicking of late and a Mets lineup that may be without its most dangerous bat. Here is everything you need to know before placing your bets.

Pitching Matchup: Boyd vs. Peralta

The starting pitching storyline on Thursday centers squarely on Matthew Boyd, who is coming off the 15-day injured list and making his return to the mound for Chicago. The left-hander posted a 2-1 record with a 6.00 ERA across 24 innings before landing on the IL, striking out 31 while issuing just 6 walks. The ERA is concerning, but his strikeout rate and command profile are encouraging for a pitcher coming back healthy and motivated. Boyd has upside, and the Cubs clearly believe he is ready to contribute again.

The Mets counter with Freddy Peralta, who has been a mixed bag in 2026. The right-hander carries a 5-6 record and a 4.83 ERA over 85.2 innings pitched. He has struck out 83 hitters but has also surrendered 12 home runs and issued 34 walks, giving opposing offenses multiple avenues to score. Peralta has flashed brilliance at times this season but has also been prone to the big inning. Against a Cubs lineup that features several right-handed bats and legitimate power threats, Peralta faces a difficult challenge on Thursday night.

Lineup Breakdown

The Cubs carry one of the more well-rounded lineups in the National League, and Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as the clear catalyst. The center fielder is hitting .286/.367/.525 with 17 home runs and 43 RBI, combining elite athleticism with growing offensive production. His ability to do damage in the middle of the order while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense makes him one of the most complete players in the game at just 22 years old.

Beyond Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs have legitimate pop throughout the order. Ian Happ brings 16 home runs from the left field spot, Seiya Suzuki is hitting .270 with 10 home runs as the designated hitter, and Alex Bregman has provided solid veteran production from the hot corner at .246 with 6 home runs. This is a lineup that can string together rallies against a pitcher like Peralta who has command issues, and the Cubs rank among the better offenses in the NL at a .244 team average with a 4.30 ERA on the pitching side.

The Mets have a significant injury cloud hanging over them entering Thursday. Juan Soto is listed as day-to-day, and his availability remains uncertain. The left fielder has been the heart of the Mets’ offense, slashing .299/.395/.570 with 17 home runs and 38 RBI. Losing Soto, even for a single game, is a major blow. Mark Vientos is hitting just .221 with 9 home runs at first base, and the lineup loses significant depth if the Soto situation keeps him out of the lineup. The Mets are also dealing with Tyrone Taylor (10-Day IL) and Christian Arroyo (7-Day IL), further thinning a lineup that ranks below league average with a .231 team batting average.

Series Context and Trends

The Cubs have already won two of three in this series, and road teams finishing sweeps does not happen often against home clubs trying to salvage dignity. However, this Mets team has been inconsistent enough that there is no rally-around-the-home-dugout momentum to count on. The Cubs are 19-20 on the road, which is serviceable, and they have clearly played well enough this week at Citi Field to justify confidence in the finale.

From a situational betting perspective, the Cubs -105 moneyline is remarkably close to a pick’em despite Chicago being the better team on paper and holding the series edge. The public is leaning 56 percent toward the Mets, which is worth noting as a soft contrarian indicator. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, and with both starters carrying elevated ERAs and questions about Boyd’s workload coming off the IL, runs are certainly possible. If Boyd is limited to four or five innings, the Cubs bullpen will need to carry the load.

For bettors looking to get involved, the DraftKings promo code offers a solid way to maximize value on MLB night games, and the FanDuel promo code has competitive odds posted for this contest. If you want to compare lines before committing, check the FanDuel Sportsbook review for an overview of their MLB coverage. Those who prefer to spread their risk might also explore the BetMGM promo code for alternate lines and same-game parlays on Thursday’s slate.

Injury Report Summary

The Cubs are managing their own injury situation with Jaxon Wiggins on the 7-Day IL joining Boyd’s return from the 15-Day IL. Boyd’s effective return to health and readiness is the key storyline, and the Cubs’ medical staff has confirmed he is cleared to start Thursday. On the Mets side, the absence of Soto is the most pressing concern, compounded by the losses of Taylor and Arroyo from the regular lineup. A depleted Mets offense against a returning but motivated Boyd creates favorable conditions for Chicago.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Cubs have done everything right in this series, and the matchup numbers favor them strongly on Thursday. Peralta has been hittable, the Mets’ lineup is compromised by injuries, and the Cubs are playing with momentum. Boyd returning from the IL adds some uncertainty, but Chicago’s bullpen depth mitigates any risk of a short outing from their starter. The value on the Cubs -105 moneyline is legitimate, as this is effectively a coin-flip price on a team that is clearly better right now.

• Prediction: Cubs 5, Mets 3
• Best Bet: Chicago Cubs -105 Moneyline

The Cubs get the sweep at Citi Field, with Pete Crow-Armstrong and the middle of their lineup doing enough damage against a shaky Peralta to secure a comfortable victory. The Caesars Sportsbook promo code offers additional value for those backing Chicago on Thursday night’s series finale.