Poll: Americans Strongly Prefer Sports Betting Markets Over Political Prediction Contracts, New Survey Finds

A new national survey conducted by POLITICO in partnership with the United Kingdom-based polling firm Public First finds that Americans are significantly more comfortable with prediction market contracts tied to sports events than those tied to political outcomes, according to results released this week. The poll captures a public opinion landscape that is still largely skeptical of prediction markets broadly, but shows a clear divide between how consumers view sports-based contracts versus those linked to elections and political figures.

Strong Opposition to Political Contracts, Broader Support for Sports Betting

Among the survey’s most striking findings: 44 percent of adult respondents believe that betting on election outcomes should be unlawful. Similar levels of concern emerged around contracts tied to presidential statements, pardons, and the public actions of political figures. The results reflect ongoing public unease about the intersection of financial speculation and democratic processes, a tension that has intensified as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded their political event offerings.

In contrast, more than half of respondents expressed support for legalizing contracts on sports event outcomes. That finding aligns with broader consumer sentiment around legal sports wagering, which has expanded across more than three dozen U.S. states since the Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling in Murphy v. NCAA. Sports betting has normalized the concept of financial contracts tied to athletic outcomes for millions of Americans, creating a foundation of familiarity that does not exist for politically themed markets.

The poll also reveals a sharp generational divide in awareness and participation. Among respondents aged 18 to 24 and 25 to 34, 12 percent reported having placed at least one prediction market bet. That figure drops significantly among older demographics, suggesting that prediction markets remain largely unfamiliar to the broader U.S. population even as platforms claim growing transaction volume. Understanding the difference between prediction markets vs sports betting is still a knowledge gap for most American adults.

The Regulatory Stakes for the CFTC and Platform Operators

The survey comes at a consequential regulatory moment. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is currently working on a new federal regulatory framework for prediction market platforms, a process that has drawn intense lobbying from both the platforms themselves and from the sports betting industry. The American Gaming Association has urged Congress to prevent the CFTC from classifying sports event contracts as federally regulated futures products, arguing that such a designation would allow prediction market platforms to operate in sports wagering without the state-by-state licensing requirements that govern licensed sportsbooks.

Kalshi and Polymarket have both faced legal challenges at the state level over their sports event contract offerings. Regulators in Kentucky, Nevada, Rhode Island, and New Mexico have initiated actions arguing that the platforms’ sports contracts constitute unauthorized sports wagering under existing state law. Kalshi won a federal court ruling in 2024 permitting it to continue offering sports event contracts while legal proceedings continue, but the state-level battles remain active.

The broader prediction markets ecosystem has grown rapidly despite these legal pressures. Kalshi and Polymarket together processed more than $50 billion in contract volume in 2025 and have eclipsed $130 billion in combined volume so far in 2026. That growth has attracted scrutiny from regulators, lawmakers, and now pollsters seeking to understand how the American public views these platforms.

What the Poll Means for the Prediction Market Industry

For consumers already engaged with legal sports wagering, prediction market platforms offer a structurally different product — one based on trading contracts rather than placing fixed-odds bets. The DraftKings Promo Code and comparable offers from licensed sportsbooks remain the dominant entry point for most sports bettors, but prediction market platforms have begun to attract crossover interest from bettors comfortable with the trading model.

The Public First poll, commissioned by POLITICO, did not specify its exact methodology or sample size in the reported excerpts, though POLITICO described it as a national survey of American adults. Its findings carry significance for platforms navigating both public perception and regulatory scrutiny, as the political versus sports divide could inform how federal regulators ultimately choose to treat different categories of prediction market contracts under any forthcoming CFTC rule.

The results reinforce what many industry observers have long argued: that sports-linked prediction contracts face a fundamentally different public reception than politically themed ones, and that regulatory frameworks which treat all event contracts identically may not reflect the preferences of the Americans they are designed to protect.