Q1 Earnings Season Starts This Week — Four Gaming Numbers That Will Define the Rest of 2026

Casino stocks are down roughly 6 percent for 2026 as of late April, and this week is when analysts and investors start getting actual answers instead of speculation. First-quarter earnings season kicks off with Las Vegas Sands reporting Wednesday, followed by Boyd Gaming, Churchill Downs, and Penn Entertainment on Thursday. Caesars and Rush Street go next Tuesday. MGM and Red Rock Resorts report the following Wednesday. Wynn rounds it out on May 7.

Four storylines will define how the rest of the year shakes out for the gaming sector, and they cut across the full spectrum of the industry from physical casinos to digital sportsbooks to the emerging prediction market threat.

Number One: Can the Las Vegas Strip Show Recovery?

Las Vegas visitation has been soft. Revenue per available room fell 8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, and visitation was down 6 percent in the same period. The first quarter of 2026 has looked meaningfully better by some measures: revenue per room is tracking up about 5 percent, and visitation has been roughly flat compared to the fourth quarter. That represents a genuine sequential improvement, but flat is not growth.

J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer estimates first-quarter Strip EBITDAR at $420 million for Caesars, $740 million for MGM, and $227 million for Wynn. His view is that Strip estimates are likely to move higher, with upside coming from group and convention business. Bank of America’s Shaun Kelley sees the Strip setup as 1 percent above consensus, citing room rate surveys tracking upward through June. The wildcard is low-end leisure demand, which remains soft, and international visitation, which has been pressured by higher airfares. Both analysts agree that the high-end segment has been resilient while the value-oriented traveler is still being squeezed.

Number Two: The Caesars Fertitta Deal Overhang

Caesars stock has become almost impossible to analyze on fundamentals alone because the M&A speculation has dominated every conversation about the company. Bloomberg reported on April 20, 2026 that Caesars has extended a period of exclusive talks for an $18 billion takeover by billionaire Tilman Fertitta, who offered approximately $32 per share and has agreed to assume more than $11 billion in Caesars’ debt. Bank of America has removed its investment opinion on Caesars entirely, saying investors should not rely on its previous price objective given how deal speculation has decoupled the stock from its fundamentals.

The proposed financing includes $2 to $3 billion in equity and $4 to $5 billion in new borrowing against assets. Fertitta’s plan would combine Caesars with his Landry’s restaurant group and Golden Nugget casino portfolio. Any deal would require Nevada Gaming Commission approval and face intense regulatory scrutiny. Truist analyst Barry Jonas noted the deal would be complex given the elevated leverage of both parties. Whether or not a deal happens, every question on the Caesars earnings call this week will be filtered through that backdrop. If you follow the Caesars Sportsbook product, the ownership uncertainty matters for how the digital segment gets managed going forward.

Number Three: DraftKings and the Prediction Market Handle Problem

Digital gaming stocks are down 36 percent for the year according to Bank of America, significantly worse than US land-based operators which are up 1 percent. Online sports betting handle is tracking down 2 percent in the first quarter year-over-year, excluding Missouri which launched in that period. J.P. Morgan estimates DraftKings EBITDA at $151 million for the quarter, well below the Street consensus of $174 million.

The concern is not just the current quarter. Analysts at both J.P. Morgan and Bank of America say 2026 full-year estimates remain at risk for DraftKings and FanDuel. The prediction market narrative is bleeding into iGaming commentary as well, with some suggesting that the handle migration is starting to affect online casino revenue, not just sports betting. If you use the DraftKings platform, the product has been adding prediction market features as a competitive response, but the question of whether that offsets handle migration from the core sportsbook is unresolved.

Number Four: The BetMGM Turnaround Story

MGM’s digital segment is one of the more interesting setups in this earnings cycle. BetMGM has struggled relative to DraftKings and FanDuel over the past two years, but the company has been restructuring its digital approach and analysts see MGM as having one of the better setups heading into the first quarter among major operators. The first-quarter Strip estimate for MGM carries the most potential upside versus consensus among the large-cap casino names according to J.P. Morgan, which has a $42 price target on the stock. How the BetMGM segment performs alongside the Strip recovery will be the key read for investors watching the full MGM picture. If you are evaluating the BetMGM product from a bettor’s perspective, the corporate health of its parent company matters for investment in the platform’s features and markets.

This is the earnings season where the gaming industry gets its first honest scorecard on what the prediction market era is actually doing to handle and revenue. The numbers over the next two weeks will either validate or complicate a lot of the assumptions that have been baked into how analysts and investors are thinking about digital gaming for the rest of 2026.