World Cup Prediction Market Data: Turkey 3-2 USA, France at 19%, and the MLB Race Heating Up
A deep look at the data behind Thursday’s Polymarket and Kalshi World Cup markets — Turkey’s underdog win, France’s 19% World Cup edge, and the Dodgers leading MLB futures.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup delivered one of the sharpest tests yet for sports prediction markets on Thursday night, when Turkey stunned the United States 3-2 thanks to Kaan Ayhan’s 98th-minute winner at SoFi Stadium. The Türkiye-USA market generated over $36 million in total trading volume on Polymarket, with more than $33 million transacted on match day alone — making it one of the largest single-day volumes on any sports market in the platform’s history. Sportsbooks had the United States as clear favorites heading into the contest, priced between -115 and -125, while Turkey sat at +265 or longer across major books. Prediction markets reflected similar consensus. The 98th-minute set-piece from Ayhan resolved the market decisively in Turkey’s favor despite the consensus view. Despite the loss, the US finished as Group D winners with six points and advances to face Bosnia-Herzegovina in the round of 32. Turkey is eliminated.
World Cup Winner: France at 19%, Argentina Second, Spain Third
The group stage is done and the round of 32 bracket is set. The most data-rich market in prediction markets right now is the World Cup winner futures contract, which has accumulated over $3 billion in total trading volume on Polymarket, with $64 million changing hands on June 26 alone. Kalshi’s parallel market carries comparable liquidity and is worth cross-referencing for any position you take.
Current Polymarket probabilities for the top contenders as of June 26 are as follows. France leads at approximately 19.3 percent, with Kalshi pricing Les Bleus at 20.0 percent — a tight spread that reflects strong agreement between the two platforms. Argentina is second at around 14.75 to 15.05 percent across platforms. Spain sits at 13.8 to 13.9 percent on Polymarket and 13.4 percent on Kalshi. England is fourth at 10.45 to 10.55 percent. Germany and Brazil follow at 5.25 and 5.45 to 5.65 percent respectively. These translate to sportsbook equivalents of roughly France +415, Argentina +564, Spain +626, and England +855 — useful reference points when comparing against traditional futures lines at FanDuel promo code or other major books.
The convergence between Polymarket and Kalshi on France’s probability is notable. When two high-volume prediction markets agree within one percentage point, that tends to represent a stable, well-informed consensus. For more on how the two platforms compare structurally, the Kalshi vs. Polymarket guide breaks down fees, resolution rules, and market depth in detail.
What the Turkey Market Tells Us About Prediction Market Accuracy
Thursday’s Turkey-USA result merits a closer analytical look. The 98th-minute winner from Kaan Ayhan came after goals from Arda Güler (10th minute) and Barış Alper Yılmaz (31st minute) put Turkey ahead, with the USMNT equalizing through Trusty (3rd) and Berhalter (49th). The US was rotating heavily, with Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards all rested due to yellow card accumulation. Christian Pulisic returned from a calf injury but was managed carefully.
The market volume tells a specific story: $33 million in a single day on one match reflects a depth of participation that puts this market in the same conversation as major US sports playoff games. The fact that Turkey’s underdog outcome — however narrow — could resolve a $36 million market makes this one of the cleaner real-money probability tests of the tournament. If you’re new to how these markets function mechanically, the how prediction markets work guide provides the foundational framework.
MLB World Series: Dodgers at 29%, and Tonight’s Schedule
The most actively traded MLB market on Polymarket right now is the World Series winner contract, where the Los Angeles Dodgers lead all teams at 29 percent probability. That’s a commanding lead over the field and reflects both their on-field performance and roster depth heading into the second half of the season. The Polymarket promo code page has more if you’re looking to get started on the platform; Kalshi promo code offers are also available for traders who prefer CFTC-regulated markets.
On tonight’s MLB schedule, the Atlanta Braves host the San Francisco Giants at 10:15 PM ET, a game that has attracted active prediction market attention. The Oakland Athletics, at 38-38, face the Los Angeles Angels (30-47) tonight at Sutter Health Park. Oakland holds a clear edge in market pricing given the disparity in records and the Angels’ trajectory this season.
Looking Ahead: Round of 32 and Market Opportunities
The USA-Bosnia-Herzegovina matchup in the round of 32 will be one of the most-watched markets of the knockout stage. With the Americans expected to return their full squad — Balogun, Adams, Robinson, Richards all rested Thursday — the market is likely to open the US as a substantial favorite. Tracking how that price compares across Polymarket, Kalshi, and traditional sportsbooks will be an interesting exercise in market agreement.
The broader World Cup winner market will also shift significantly depending on how the top contenders navigate the round of 32. France’s 80 percent probability of winning their group is already resolved, and their knockout odds will adjust rapidly as their bracket opponent is confirmed. For bettors who use prediction markets alongside sportsbook action, now is the window where futures positions at the best prices need to be established — markets will compress as the field narrows.