NFL Week 9 Sunday Betting Guide: Spreads, Totals and Best Bets for Bengals-Falcons, Packers-Patriots and More

Week 9 opens before most people have finished breakfast, with the Bengals and Falcons playing in Madrid, and it closes under the lights at Soldier Field with the 6-2 Bears hosting Tampa Bay. In between, the market has hung a board with plenty to dig into: Chiefs and 49ers both laying around 10, Cowboys-Colts carrying a 51.5 total, and a handful of three-point spreads that look a lot like coin flips. Here is where the numbers look sharpest, and where the price is the story.

Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid: Burrow’s Offense Meets a Defense Coming Off a Mess

The 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at the Santiago Bernabeu has Cincinnati (5-2) favored by 3 with a total of 51.5 to 52.5 depending on the book, and moneylines around Bengals -170 and Falcons +142. That is the highest total on the Sunday board, and the reasons are easy to find. Joe Burrow leads the league with 20 touchdown passes, has thrown 13 of them during a three-game winning streak, and has the Bengals scoring 36.3 points per game over that stretch. His last outing was a 43-36 overtime win over Tennessee in which he threw five touchdown passes and then scored the game-winner himself.

Atlanta (3-5) arrives on the opposite trajectory. Michael Penix Jr. threw a career-high four interceptions in a 16-0 loss at Tampa Bay in heavy rain, a game the Buccaneers won without completing a pass. The Falcons will also be short-handed, with running back Brian Robinson and wide receiver Zachariah Branch out, which thins out the ground game and the receiver room for a team trying to keep pace with Cincinnati. The Bengals are down safety Kyle Dugger, a real loss on the back end, but the Falcons’ offense has to prove it can score before that matters.

The number has hovered between Bengals -3 and -4.5 depending on the book and the day, so there is no obvious steam to chase on the side. The more interesting question is the total. A Bengals offense averaging more than 36 points during its winning streak argues for the over, but 52.5 already prices in plenty of that. If you can find 51.5, the over is playable. At 52.5 or higher, the Bengals team total is the cleaner way to express the same view.

Packers at Patriots: Two Five-Win Teams, One Short Field Goal

The 4:25 p.m. ET game at Gillette Stadium pits Jordan Love and Drake Maye in a clash of 5-3 teams that have each won four of their last five. New England is a 3-point home favorite at -148 on the moneyline, with the total at 47.5 after opening at 46.5. The Patriots have a trend worth knowing: they are 17-0 with Maye when favored by at least a field goal, though that streak is being tested at exactly the field-goal line.

The injury reports shape the number. New England ruled out receiver A.J. Brown (ankle and knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness), and tight end Hunter Henry is questionable with a foot injury. That is a lot of passing-game firepower missing for a Patriots offense that leans on Maye. Green Bay is coming off a Thursday night win over Carolina, though receiver Christian Watson was dealing with a rib injury that sent him to the hospital for part of that game. Edge rusher Micah Parsons has opened his 21-day practice window but is not expected back until late November.

Both quarterbacks are throwing well, with Love at 16 touchdowns against six interceptions and Maye at 15 touchdowns against eight, and Green Bay has struggled to run the ball efficiently even with Josh Jacobs back. That points toward a game decided by who protects the football and who hits more explosive plays. With Brown out, the points feel like the better play than the favorite: Packers +3 gets you a cushion against a Patriots offense missing its top receiver, and if the line ticks up to 3.5 before kickoff, the value only improves.

Texans at Chargers: Is Houston Really a Road Favorite at 4.5?

This is the game that looks easiest and might be the hardest to price. Houston (2-5) is laying 4.5 at SoFi Stadium on a -218 moneyline with the total set at 42.5, one of the lowest on the board. The reason is the other sideline: the Chargers are 0-7 and have lost 10 straight dating to last season, the only winless team left in the NFL.

Los Angeles has scored nine touchdowns in seven games, fewer than any team in the league, with the next lowest at 12. Justin Herbert has five touchdown passes against a league-high 10 interceptions, and the Chargers have given up 23 sacks. On the other side, C.J. Stroud has 11 touchdown passes against just one interception, and Houston comes off a bye after an overtime loss to the Giants on October 25. The Texans are 0-4 at home but 2-1 on the road.

The case for Houston is simple: a clean quarterback against a turnover-prone one, plus extra rest. The case against laying the number is that the Texans managed only 237 total yards in their last game and Stroud threw for a season-low 153 yards, so this is not an offense that blows opponents off the field. Given how little Los Angeles scores, the under at 42.5 is where the numbers point, and it holds up even if Houston wins by a touchdown.

Bears vs. Buccaneers on Sunday Night: Respect the Favorite, Not the Number

The Sunday night finale at Soldier Field (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) has Chicago (6-2) favored by 6 with a total of 46.5, and a Bears moneyline near -250. The Bears have won three in a row, most recently a 34-17 Monday night win in Seattle in which D’Andre Swift ran for three touchdowns. Tampa Bay (3-5) has won two straight, including that bizarre 16-0 win over Atlanta, and some national analysts believe the Buccaneers can keep it close by leaning on their run defense.

Chicago is also working on a short week after playing Monday night, and some books have already moved the number from Bears -6 to Bears -5.5, with the total ticking up a point to 47.5. Laying six points on a short week against Todd Bowles’ defense is not a spot I want to be on the favorite. The Buccaneers plus the points is the contrarian play.

Quick Hits on the Rest of the Board

A few other numbers worth flagging. Chiefs -9.5 against the Jets (45.5 total) is one of the two biggest spreads of the week, and the Jets rank last in the league in red zone efficiency at 42 percent, which keeps the Kansas City side and the under in the conversation. The 49ers are also laying 9.5 against a Raiders team returning to the Bay Area. Cowboys -5.5 at Indianapolis carries a 51.5 total, and Dallas is coming off a home loss to Arizona. Browns at Saints (Saints -3, total 43.5) will feature Shedeur Sanders starting in place of the concussed Deshaun Watson. The Giants are a 2.5-point road favorite at Philadelphia with the lowest total on the board at 40.5.

For readers looking to shop these lines, comparing prices across a few books matters most on numbers like 3 and 6. A DraftKings promo code or FanDuel promo code can give new users extra bankroll to work with, and holding accounts at more than one book helps catch the half-point differences.

Sun, Nov 15 • 8:20 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Pittsburgh Steelers	+3.5 (-108)	+168	O 48.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals	-3.5 (-118)	-192	U 47.5 (-115)

This Week’s Best Bets

These are the plays I like most from the matchups above, based on current DraftKings numbers, which can move before kickoff.

• Bengals vs. Falcons: Bengals team total over, or the game over at 51.5 or lower
• Packers at Patriots: Packers +3
• Texans at Chargers: Under 42.5
• Bears vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers +6

Lines move all weekend, so check the latest numbers before you bet, and bet only what you can afford to lose.