Texas Gambling Opponent Dan Patrick Trails in New Poll, Raising Hopes for Legal Sports Betting

Texas sports betting advocates have a new reason for optimism heading into the fall election season. A poll released Aug. 7 by Texas Pulse and the Texas A&M Bush School shows Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the single biggest roadblock to legal gambling in the Lone Star State, trailing Democratic challenger Vikki Goodwin 48-46% in his bid for a fourth term.

The margin sits within the poll’s 4.4-point margin of error, but the numbers still mark a notable shift for an incumbent who has never lost a statewide race and is sitting on a campaign war chest north of $30 million. Patrick’s unfavorable rating checked in at 46%, compared to just 14% for Goodwin, who remains largely unknown to voters — 56% told pollsters they don’t know her well enough to have an opinion.

Why Patrick’s Job Security Matters for Texas Betting

As lieutenant governor, Patrick presides over the Texas Senate and controls which bills reach the floor — a gatekeeper role he has used for more than a decade to keep sports betting and casino legislation from ever getting a vote. Even when sports betting bills cleared the Texas House, as they did in 2023 with support from state Sen. Lois Kolkhorst, Patrick refused to grant committee hearings or floor time in the Senate.

His stated bar for allowing a vote has been explicit: he wants 15 to 16 Republican senators on board before he’ll bring a bill forward, calling anything short of that a “Democrat bill” he won’t touch. Patrick has repeated as recently as this year that the Senate has “zero support” for legalizing sports betting or casinos, adding on The Mark Davis Show that he “couldn’t find one senator who supported it.”

Legalizing sports betting in Texas isn’t as simple as passing a statute — it requires amending the state constitution, which means a bill needs two-thirds support in both chambers before the question can even reach voters on a ballot. Patrick’s refusal to let that process start in the Senate has been the effective ceiling on Texas betting expansion since he took the gavel in 2015.

What a Goodwin Win Would Change

Goodwin, an Austin state representative, has framed her campaign around public education funding and health care rather than gambling policy specifically, but her ascension would remove the Senate’s most consistent opponent of legalization from the chamber’s top leadership post. Industry analysts have noted that if Goodwin wins in November, Texas voters could plausibly see a constitutional amendment question on the ballot as soon as the 2028 election. A Patrick victory, by contrast, would likely keep the state locked out of legal wagering until at least 2032, since he wouldn’t face voters again until then.

Patrick isn’t just fighting traditional sports betting bills, either. Earlier this year he directed the Senate State Affairs Committee to study ways to close what he called “gambling loopholes” that let prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate in Texas without state authorization, a sign he intends to keep pressing on gambling policy broadly regardless of how the betting fight plays out.

For now, Texas remains one of the largest states without any form of legal sports wagering, leaving residents to rely on prediction markets, daily fantasy platforms, and sweepstakes-style options while the fight over Patrick’s seat plays out. Bettors tracking the broader national betting landscape can compare legal sportsbook options by state while they wait to see whether Texas joins the list.

A Race Still Very Much Undecided

The Texas Pulse poll isn’t the only recent survey on the race, and the results aren’t unanimous. A Texas Southern University poll released around the same time found Patrick leading Goodwin 46-39%, underscoring how unsettled the contest remains this far out from Election Day. Goodwin’s numbers moved in her favor between June and July in the Texas Pulse tracking poll — she trailed 49-44% a month earlier — but her name recognition problem is real, and Patrick’s financial advantage gives him significant room to close any gap before November.

Early voting for the 2026 general election runs Oct. 19-30, with Election Day set for Nov. 3. Until then, Texas gambling advocates will be watching the lieutenant governor’s race as closely as any ballot measure on the table.