New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction: Madison Square Garden Comes Alive for Game 1
The third-seeded New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks in a Game 1 loaded with star power, playoff atmosphere, and a total that the market is pricing unusually low given both offenses.
One of the most electric environments in all of sports — Madison Square Garden during the NBA Playoffs — plays host to Game 1 of the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks first-round series on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video, and the Garden will be rocking from the opening possession. The Knicks enter as -5.5 favorites, with the moneyline at -225 and the over/under set at 216.5. This is a matchup that features two of the more explosive offenses in the Eastern Conference colliding in the most famous arena in basketball.
New York finished the regular season 53-29 as the third seed in the East, posting a +519 scoring differential that translates to outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game. The Knicks averaged 116.5 points per game and rank second in the league in offensive rating at 116.8 per 100 possessions. They were particularly dominant at Madison Square Garden, averaging 119 points at home compared to 114 on the road. Atlanta finished 46-36 as the sixth seed, averaging 118.5 points per game (sixth in the league) and allowing 116 per contest. This is not a defensive series — these two teams can score.
The Over Angle Is the Most Interesting Bet on the Board
The total of 216.5 is the key number to understand in this matchup. Between these two teams, the combined average scoring is 235 points per game — 18.5 points more than the over/under set for this game. The Hawks and Knicks have each played at a pace well above this total all season long, and the opponents they have faced have also averaged 9.6 more points per game than what the market has set for this contest. Both teams have shown they can score efficiently in bunches, and New York’s home offense (119 points per game) adds another layer of concern for anyone fading the over.
New York’s offense runs through Jalen Brunson, one of the most reliable playoff performers in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks also get significant contributions from Karl-Anthony Towns in the post, OG Anunoby defending at an elite level, and a bench that has deepened considerably since last season. KAT averages 20-plus points and double-digit rebounds, creating interior mismatches that force Atlanta’s defense to make difficult rotation decisions. The market has New York at -275 series favorites to advance, and most handicappers see this as a five-game series.
| Fri, Dec 25 • 12:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| San Antonio Spurs |  +1.5 (-115) | -105 |  O 230 (-109) |
| New York Knicks | -1.5 (-105) | -110 | U 229 (-110) |
Atlanta’s Offense Is the Wild Card
Do not sleep on the Hawks. Atlanta finished sixth in the NBA in points per game at 118.5, they hit 14.6 three-pointers per game at a 37.1 percent rate (fifth-best in the league), and they have the shooting capability to make any defense pay. Jalen Johnson has emerged as one of the more dangerous forward options in the East, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker gives the Hawks a second playmaker who can generate his own offense in isolation or off the pick-and-roll.
The Hawks covered the spread in two of their three regular season matchups against the Knicks, and Atlanta went 23-18 against the spread when playing on the road this season. New York covered in five straight games heading into the postseason, though they have historically struggled to cover large spreads in the playoffs during the Brunson era. The Knicks are 25-17-1 ATS this season when favored by at least five points, which is solid but not dominant. Atlanta figures to keep this within single digits for most of the night.
One notable injury to track: Hawks center Jock Landale is out for the start of this series, which limits Atlanta’s interior defense and rebounding. Karl-Anthony Towns should be licking his chops with the ability to post up without an elite rim protector waiting for him in the paint. That size advantage could be the difference in a game where the Knicks control the boards and get second-chance opportunities. New York out-rebounded opponents by 5.1 per game this season, and without Landale, that gap could widen in Game 1.
Other Game Picks
Prediction and Best Bet
The Knicks win Game 1 in front of a sold-out Madison Square Garden that gives them an undeniable energy advantage. Jalen Brunson takes over in the fourth quarter as he has done so many times before at home, KAT dominates the interior against a shorthanded Hawks front line, and New York sets the tone for the series with a strong performance.
- Prediction: New York Knicks 118, Atlanta Hawks 112
- Best Bet: Over 216.5 (-110)
Both teams can score. Atlanta averages 118.5 points per game, New York averages 116.5, and the combined total of 235 points per game suggests this market total is set nearly 20 points below what history would predict. Playoff games are often tighter, but with two high-powered offenses and no elite rim protector for Atlanta, the scoring should flow freely at the Garden on Saturday night.