Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction: Jacob Misiorowski Looks to Complete the Wrigley Field Sweep

Jacob Misiorowski and the division-leading Brewers go for a series sweep over the wild-card-chasing Cubs at Wrigley Field on September 2. Full odds, stats, and best bet.

Max Gilson September 2, 2026

Jacob Misiorowski has been the best story in baseball all summer, and the reeling Cubs are exactly the kind of lineup that makes his fastball look unfair.

Quick take:
Pick: Brewers -1.5
Why: Misiorowski’s 1.73 ERA against a Cubs offense stuck in a funk without its full complement of thump
The number to watch: Misiorowski’s .150 opponent batting average, first in the National League

Milwaukee rolls into Wednesday night at Wrigley Field having already taken the first two games of this series, including a 17-3 demolition on Monday, and the Brewers arrive at 86-53, comfortably in first place in the NL Central. Chicago, at 78-61, is still fighting to hold its wild card position, and a third straight loss to their closest geographic rival would sting in a way that goes beyond the standings.

Why the Market Still Respects the Cubs at Home

Milwaukee is a road favorite at -162 on the moneyline, with Chicago sitting at +136. The run line has the Brewers at -1.5 (+102) and the Cubs at +1.5 (-122), and the total is set at 8.5. That’s a number that acknowledges both lineups can score — Chicago’s is still built around Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 38 home runs and Seiya Suzuki’s .492 slugging mark — but it also reflects a market that trusts Misiorowski enough to lean Brewers even in front of a Wrigley crowd that will be desperate for a response.

It’s worth noting how quickly this line moved once the pitching matchup was announced. Books opened closer to a coin flip on the run line before settling on Milwaukee’s current number, a sign that sharp money sided with the Brewers almost immediately. That kind of steam usually means something, especially with a starter carrying the kind of run prevention numbers Misiorowski has posted all year.

Misiorowski’s Breakout Season Meets a Cubs Lineup Missing Its Rhythm

There isn’t a pitcher in baseball having a season quite like Jacob Misiorowski’s. The 24-year-old right-hander is 14-5 with a 1.73 ERA and a WHIP that sits at an absurd 0.75, and his 222 strikeouts in 151 innings lead all of the National League. Opponents are hitting just .150 against him, also a league-best mark, and he’s fanned at least six batters in all but one start this season. He’ll need every bit of that stuff against a Cubs order that leans on Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki and Alex Bregman, who’s chipped in 23 home runs of his own, but the supporting cast around them has cooled — Ian Happ is hitting just .220 on the year, and Nico Hoerner’s on-base percentage sits at a modest .319.

David Peterson gets the ball for Chicago, and his 5.11 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP tells the story of a pitching staff that’s had to piece things together down the stretch. He’s given up plenty of hard contact, and against a Milwaukee lineup that’s scored 695 runs on the season — third-most in the National League — that combination is dangerous. Jackson Chourio has 20 home runs and a .476 slugging percentage from the leadoff spot, Brice Turang has quietly put together a .254/.349/.425 season, and Jake Bauers has been a revelation at .273 with 23 homers and a .392 on-base percentage.

Other Game Picks

Milwaukee has outscored Chicago 26-7 across the first two games of this series.

That’s not a small-sample blip. It’s a pattern. The Brewers have now won six of their last ten games while the Cubs have dropped six of their last ten, and Chicago’s wild card cushion is thinner than it was a week ago. A sweep at home against the division leaders is the kind of result that lingers into October.

Misiorowski isn’t invincible — he’s shown occasional bouts of wildness with a 4.2 BB/9 rate this season — but he’s been nearly untouchable when he’s on, and Milwaukee’s bullpen has been trustworthy enough to protect a lead when he exits. That combination against a Cubs team searching for answers offensively is a tough matchup to bet against, even with the total set high enough to account for some late-inning fireworks.

Prediction and Best Bet

Misiorowski’s stuff, plus a Brewers lineup that’s already lit up Wrigley twice this week, points to a third straight loss for Chicago. The Cubs have the pieces to make it a game for a few innings, but Milwaukee’s depth — and the way this series has gone so far — makes a third straight win the more likely outcome. Bettors weighing a Brewers moneyline play should also check the latest DraftKings promo code before placing anything, since new-user offers can meaningfully change the math on a heavy favorite like this one.