Brewers vs. Rays Prediction: World Series Game 3 Pick and Best Bet
The Brewers lead the World Series 2-0, but Freddy Peralta and a rested Rays team are the Game 3 favorites at Tropicana Field. Here is the pick and best bet.
Milwaukee is two wins from a franchise-first title, and the pitcher who spent eight seasons in its organization is now starting for Tampa Bay.
Quick take:
- Pick: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
- Why: Freddy Peralta has been nearly untouchable at Tropicana Field, and Robert Gasser does not miss many bats against the least swing-and-miss lineup in baseball.
- The number to watch: Peralta’s 1.45 ERA in seven home starts since joining the Rays.
The World Series shifts to St. Petersburg on Monday night with the Milwaukee Brewers (103-59 in the regular season) holding a 2-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64). First pitch from Tropicana Field is 8:00 PM ET on FOX.
Both games in Milwaukee were decided by a single run. The Brewers took the opener 3-2, then erased a 4-0 deficit in Game 2 to win 5-4, with Sal Frelick tying it with a home run and rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt delivering the go-ahead RBI single in the seventh. Of the 57 teams to take a 2-0 World Series lead, 46 have gone on to win it all, so history is stacked against Tampa Bay. The margins, though, say this series is closer than the 2-0 count suggests.
A Short Home Favorite With a Familiar Face on the Mound
The market sees this one as nearly a coin flip. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Tampa Bay sits at -120 on the moneyline with Milwaukee at +102, and the total is 6.5 runs, with the over priced at -152. The run line has the Brewers at -1.5 (+180) and the Rays at +1.5 (-220). A team trailing 0-2 still being favored tells you how much oddsmakers trust the pitching matchup and the home dome. If you want to shop that number, it is worth comparing the current FanDuel promo code offer against other books before you lock anything in.
Why Peralta Against Milwaukee Is the Story
Freddy Peralta spent his first eight seasons in the Brewers organization before being traded in January, and he now gets to face his old club on the biggest stage in baseball. His overall line for the year, 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA, hides how good he has been lately. Since late August he is 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA across his last 10 games, and he is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA this postseason.
Home cooking matters too. In seven starts at the Trop since arriving at the trade deadline, Peralta owns a 1.45 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay also gave him extra rest after his final ALCS outing, so he should be as fresh as he has been in weeks.
The Rays’ 20.7 percent whiff rate is the lowest in MLB this season, while Gasser generated misses on only 22.5 percent of his swings.
That is the matchup in a sentence. Robert Gasser is a lefty who leans on a sweeper that has been tough to square up, and he has been excellent since August 26, going 2-0 with a 1.51 ERA in eight appearances. He has also allowed just one run over nine postseason innings. But his sinker and cutter make up more than 40 percent of his mix, and opponents have posted xwOBAs of .377 and .395 against those two pitches. Right-handed hitters slugged .442 against him this season, a clear opening for Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero.
Tampa Bay does not need a big inning to cash this ticket. It needs contact, and contact is what this lineup does better than anyone.
The Rays also come in rested after Sunday’s off day, with closer Bryan Baker and left-hander Cam Booser expected to be available. Kevin Cash can manage the late innings aggressively, which matters for a team that knows another loss puts it in a 3-0 hole. Tampa Bay has also been its own worst enemy in this series, running into unnecessary outs and making uncharacteristic mistakes in the field, and Caminero openly called that out after Game 2. A clean game from the Rays looks very different from the first two.
There is a real case for Milwaukee, and it deserves respect. This Brewers team came back from four-run deficits in both Game 4 of the NLCS against the Dodgers and Game 2 of this series, and its bullpen has been a weapon all October. Jake Bauers, who hit 18 of his 26 home runs against right-handed pitching and posted a .536 expected slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs, is a natural threat against a pitcher who throws his four-seamer more than half the time. Christian Yelich batting third against his former teammate adds another wrinkle.
Still, Milwaukee has been winning by the thinnest of margins, and thin margins tend to swing back eventually. With the fixed roof at Tropicana Field removing weather from the equation, this comes down to the starting pitching battle, and Peralta has the better recent form and the better home track record.
Prediction and Best Bet
Tampa Bay finds a way to avoid the 3-0 hole. Peralta works deep into the game, the Rays scratch out four runs against Gasser and the Milwaukee bullpen, and Baker closes it out. Expect another close one, but this time the final out goes Tampa Bay’s way.
| Mon, Oct 26 • 8:10 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Milwaukee Brewers |  +1.5 (-215) |  +103 | O 7 (-108) |
| Tampa Bay Rays |  +1.5 (-230) | -120 | U 6.5 (124) |
The pick:
- Prediction: Rays 4, Brewers 3
- Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline
The price is short at -120, but a hot Peralta at home against a low-whiff starter is the best value on the board for Game 3.