Dream vs. Valkyries Game 5 Prediction: WNBA Finals Pick and Best Bet

One win from a first-ever WNBA title, the Atlanta Dream and Golden State Valkyries finally get a tiebreaker, and it lands in the loudest building in the league.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Valkyries -1.5
• Why: Golden State fixed its turnover problem and is back at home, where it went 17-5 this season.
• The number to watch: Atlanta turned it over 18 times in Game 4, against nine for the Valkyries.

The WNBA Finals are tied 2-2, and Game 5 tips off Monday at 8:00 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco. Neither franchise has ever won a championship, so somebody is going to be one game from history by the time the night is over.

The Valkyries (32-12) stole Game 4 in Atlanta, 67-62, after dropping Games 2 and 3 in a way that had people writing them off. The Dream (30-14) went 15-7 on the road in the regular season, so they will not be intimidated by a hostile crowd, but they have not looked like themselves since Saturday afternoon.

A Coin-Flip Line in a Series That Keeps Flipping Coins

Books have Golden State as a slim home favorite. The consensus spread sits at Valkyries -1.5 (about -105), with Atlanta at +1.5 (around -115). On the moneyline, the Valkyries are roughly -118 and the Dream about -102, and the total is posted at 149.5. That is the market saying it cannot separate these two teams, with a small nudge toward the home side. If you like to shop for the best number, a game this tight is exactly when half a point matters.

How Golden State Turned Game 4 Around

Everything that went wrong for the Valkyries earlier in the series was self-inflicted. They set a franchise playoff record with 19 turnovers in Game 2 and were outscored 44-20 in the paint in Game 3. In Game 4, coach Natalie Nakase changed the starting lineup, swapping Kayla Thornton and Cecilia Zandalasini out for Tiffany Hayes and Kaila Charles, and the result was the cleanest game of the series.

Golden State committed just nine turnovers while forcing 18 from Atlanta, and it built a 16-point lead, the biggest of the Finals for either side. It also won the paint 38-28 even though it hit only 4 of 25 from three-point range, a 16% clip that is far from its identity.

Golden State shot 36% from the field and 16% from three in Game 4 and still won, because it committed nine turnovers to Atlanta’s 18.

Gabby Williams led the way with 17 points, and Hayes and Veronica Burton each added 13, with four Valkyries reaching double figures. Kiah Stokes grabbed 16 rebounds, eight of them offensive, and blocked three shots to push her series total to 14, a new Finals record. Burton, who played 38 minutes with zero turnovers and a team-high five assists, is the kind of steady hand a team needs when a series gets tight.

The Dream’s problem was the other end of that equation. Angel Reese, who came in averaging 21.1 points in the Finals, had eight points on 2-of-12 shooting with six turnovers, though she still pulled down nine rebounds and blocked three shots. Rhyne Howard led Atlanta with 19 points, and Jordin Canada dished four assists, but the Dream shot 33% as a team and 17% from deep.

Atlanta also gets some good news on the injury front. Allisha Gray’s hand was not listed on the injury report for Game 5 after a scare in Game 4, so the Dream should have their full rotation.

There is also a pressure angle worth noting. Both teams are two wins away from a first title, and the road team has now won twice in this series, including Golden State’s Game 4 steal. Home-court advantage has been a lot less decisive than usual, which is exactly why the spread is so short. Still, the Valkyries were 17-5 at Chase Center during the regular season and have leaned on the crowd all postseason, with Gabby Williams calling the arena their sixth man. Atlanta’s path to a win is a faster pace, cleaner ball handling and a real bounce-back game from Reese, who was dominant on the glass earlier in the series with a double-double in each of the first three games.

Prediction and Best Bet

This feels like a series that keeps answering the previous game’s question. The Dream got their offense going in Game 3, and the Valkyries got their composure back in Game 4. With the building behind Golden State and Reese due for a bounce-back, it would be a mistake to expect another 62-point night from Atlanta, but the Valkyries’ defense has been the steadier unit all series, and they were 17-5 at home in the regular season.

The turnover battle is where this game gets decided. If Golden State holds onto the ball like it did Saturday, it controls the pace and the paint, and one more cold shooting night from deep probably will not matter. Take the Valkyries to win a low-scoring grinder, and lean toward the home team to cover the short number.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 73, Atlanta Dream 68
2. Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -1.5

Home court, a cleaner game plan and the better recent form all point the same way, so lay the small number with Golden State.