RT’s Spot Plays
09.30.22
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Churchill Downs Race 5 - $120K Maiden Special
2yo Fillies and Mares going six furlongs
2-Black Forest (7/2) should take the money on this, yet has learned to give up and cannot be trusted when challenged. I am going with a first time starter from the Tom Amoss barn, 6-Nomadic Pride (3/1) who is out of the Cherokee Run dam, Cayala. Out of her five foals, two have won their debut and three of the five scored an Equibase figure of greater than today’s 83 par. Her sire, Flatter, did not win his debut yet scored an 86 Equibase score.
Churchill Downs Race 7 - $120K Maiden Special
2yo’s fillies going six furlongs
Leading sire Into Mischief has two foals in this with 1-Gavinera (10/1) trained by 7% first time with 2yo’s Kenny McPeek and her works have been marginal. However, 7-Saucy Secret (5/1) worked a :59.8 from the gate on the last day in August and a :47.8 work on 8/17. She has put in two so/so works since, so the speed is there, and we may catch a price. 8-Two Minute Drill (7/2) is a bad prop given that Ellis shippers have performed poorly unless they are speed horses stretching out, as witnessed in the 7th yesterday with Jungle Juice, who paid $31.74. The turnback today is portentous. 4-Justifying (3/1) - caveat emptor. was a heavy favorite in her debut and ships in today. Her race at Saratoga was abysmal and her works since have been pedestrian. Of the three fillies Justify has had to return to an MSW race in the second out, Rosie’s Alibi win at Parx and scored a 67 Equibase number. Rarify was the highest scorer of the three with an 80 and given today’s 81 par and her rancid last effort, I will pass. I am going with the leading first crop sire Bolt d’Oro’s foal 9-Queen Of Chill (4/1) from the 18% winning barn of Brad Cox. Her works have been sound and with an outside draw, she should get a clean trip.