Maiden America 08.19.21
Hooptie Handicapper
Email hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com
Follow @RtsSpot
"the rain fallen from the amorous heaven, impregnates the Earth and it bringeth for mankind the food of flocks and herds" Aeschylus
Yes, we will have the rain falling softly on our fields today at Saratoga and in the 2nd race, before scratches, we have 2yo maidens carrying 119 pounds over six furlongs, and the conditions call for horses that did not sell for $45,000 at auction. They will be racing for a purse of $80,000, with the winner garnering $48,000 with the jockey making $4,800 of that to which he will give $1,200 to his agent. In this race we have Greg Sacco debuting 6-Street Hustle (6/1) for the Rising Sun Racing Stables, who mainly race the Mid-Atlantic tracks of Parx and Laurel. Since Parx is closed for a bit, they decided to van this son of Street Sense to The Spa, and we can all see what he’s about. Street Hustle’s mom, Timeless, has two other sons and one of them, Bobby Two Times, debuted at five and a half furlongs in the slop and won. His dad, Street Sense, has debuted twenty nine sons at two years of age, with six of them winning at first ask, or 21%. He has had seven works leading up to this with a :48.2 from the gate and a sub 12er :47.8 on July 15. This guy is a player today. 7-Big Scully (7/5) is possibly an underlay with his first race garnering a 69 Equibase score and a 64 Beyer. Since this is not quite the full msw race where the Beyer par is 80, nor is it a smsw, where the Beyer par is a 70, we find ourselves in a ‘tweener. For Equibase, a typical par for msw is 86 and for this type is 82. In Scully’s last race, Equibase gave him a 69 and the expectation would be a 12-15 point pick up. That would push him at, or above par, except for the race conditions and what will be the track conditions. With a morning line of 7/5, I would not bet this horse. Maybe we’ll see a star performance out of another Connect progeny like we did with Hidden Connection? This time it’s 5-Inevtabl Conection (12/1) and his broodmare sire is Malibu Moon instead of Awesome Again. His workout patterns have been bullets of 1:01.8 and :48.4 at Delaware, so he’ll likely not hit that 1:02.21 like his half-brother. Of course, we cannot count out Luis, who will get a boot over 4-Osbourne (8/1) and he is trained by 10% with first timers Ron Moquette. He is out of Tapiture, and Osbourne’s brothers are 24% with first time winners with none of them sharing the granddad Rock Hard Ten. He has had a steady diet of four furlong works with one 12er from the gate, :48 flat, on July 22 at Ellis. It’s tough to say anything about 2-Sailor Speed (6/1) with his trainer, Wayne Potts in deep doo doo. Sailor is a son of Oxbow and the addition of blinkers today, after two nominal attempts, should make the difference. 3-St. Lukes (9/2) is a team RudyRod and Irad and they are debuting a Tapiture/Harlan’s Holiday colt. There’s a commonality on the dam side with one of her foals, Veteran’s Holiday, coming from the same broodmare sire. Diodoro had him for four races and then gave up the ghost with his pedestrian efforts. Based on that, I am steering clear of this choice. 1-Pipito (4/1) is out of freshman sire Mastery, who was 4/4 before retiring to Eden. Unfortunately, none of Mastery’s six sons have met with success in their bow, yet the interesting angle to this colt is on the dam side. His mamma, Limonar, an Irish bred, debuted in France before shipping to the US and ended up with an excellent debut race at a mile, getting a very close second, then followed that up with a win. Based on what I can tell, she was no shrinking violet when it came to racing in inclement conditions. Adding to that is Pipito’s grandpa, Street Cry, who banked a whole vault of money, $5.2M going 15/5-6-1 in his lifetime.
So, who’s in? Pipito just clanked a :47.7 from the gate ten days ago and I think he’s going to get it done for George Weaver and co.
Let’s cruise I-90 west until it’s called the Dan Ryan Expressway and then we’ll know we’re blowing into the windy city and headed north to Arlington Heights. I’ll grab my seat at the Terrace Bar and see if Stacy is working today 😊.
If my father were alive, the first bet he would make in this 7th race at Arlington would be on 4-Harmon Killer Brew (8/1) because he always bet connected names and since we live in Minnesota now, his $2 would be all over that one. If I were my father's son at the window, I would be betting 8-Ronstadt (5/1) since I met her in 1978, however, I am not when it comes to these things as my dad would always bet his age in the daily double, my mom’s age in every exacta, and when a horse went poop on the track, he’d run to the window and bet, returning always exclaiming “don’t you always feel better after?’ Aren’t these memories entertaining now as an adult and embarrassing when you’re an angsty teenager?
2-Unpredictable Boy (2/1) is going to get bet down further as Jareth Loveberry is in the irons and is a 40% prop with trainer Ali Alnaz. It appears that four will challenge him and those are 2-Kerns Not Kearns (9/2), 3-Baltic Fleet (12/1), Sport Pepper (4/1), and 6-Side Bet (10/1). Kerns Not Kearns ran a five furlong race at this course on August 5 and ended up fifth making a nice last move to near the winner by two lengths. For that, he scored a 69 Equibase number, so 75 for par is not a big stretch. Out of Tourist, his four half-brothers all stretched out at second asking with one winning and all four making excellent improvement in their Equibase score. He gets second Lasix today and he’s out of the hot barn of James DiVito (43% last 30 days). This guy is a tough call with the 1:02 work on August 15. Baltic Fleet finished sixth behind Kerns in that race and has not returned to the work tab. Pass. Normally I would not be interested in Sport Pepper, yet the second Lasix is a good angle and more interesting is the slow one mile workout (1:52.8) that Kerry Zavash put on him on August 14. He has been the speed in all three of his races and seemingly, Zavash wants to torque that down and have horse and jockey rating this stretch out. Smart move if not for Edgar Perez being 10% in route races. Use underneath. My choice is the first timer Side Bet, a Cairo Prince colt. His mom and dad debuted to victory and his works, especially the 1:00 August 13 one, are attention grabbing.
Happy Hunting 😊
*BreezeFigs Defined
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June