Maiden America 06.02.21
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There’s just a single two year old race on tap today and it’s at Delaware Park.
Delaware Park Race 1 - $38K Maiden Special Weight
2yo’s racing five furlongs
Much has been expected from the dam, Blueyesintherain, of #1 A Dangerous Guy (3/1). After all, she peeled off three wins a row, including The Debutante at Churchill, to start her career, before getting knocked off in the Eight Belles Stakes. However, she has been bred to Into Mischief and Speightstown and both of those progenies have not lit the world on fire. Considering Blueyesintherain’s successes were sprints, she was bred to Violence this time, who tends to turn out better sprinters. A Dangerous Guy has worked four times leading into this and they have all been terrific - •:35.2, :47.2, •1:00.2, 1:00.7 (gate). #5 Majestic Frontier (10/1) has just three pedestrian works and who knows, we could be on to a trend. With Behave Virginia at Churchill winning, Crypto Copy hitting the board to show yesterday and paying $5.40 for that wide trip, this Keen Ice colt could be worth tossing into the mix. #2B Stevethevandriver and #2 Heartness (6/1) are a coupled entry by Jamie Ness, and he is never to be underestimated. Neither of these horses have worked out exceptionally well, yet they are two year olds and subject to anything. #7 U Kant Whip It (4/1) just turned in a :48.4 gate work for Kelly Breen, who is 17% with first timers and 23% with two year olds. Bred to Crack Your Whip and Kantharos, U Kant Whip It has a Group 1 Breeze fig test score at two furlongs, plus five workouts that have all been progressively improved upon. The outside draw is a positive to alleviate kick back for a first timer.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances at the gate, A Dangerous Guy and U Kant Whip It should draw clear of the field with A Dangerous Guy overtaking for the win.
Longshot Exacta Play today –
Delaware Park Race 3 - $16K Maiden Claimer
3yo’s↑ going one mile and seventy yards on the turf
#3 Her Justice (20/1) takes a class drop and returns to Delaware turf for her four year old bow. She has raced against substantially tougher horses than this. Couple her with Tampa shipper #2 Estilo Elegante (4/1), a Group 1 tested filly out of Union Rags who caught a tough trip getting pinched at the gate to start, ran wide before finally settling, then dive bombing the stretch to clock a :24.95 final two furlongs.
Happy Hunting 😊
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex. There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June