Maiden America 5.30.21
The Hooptie Handicapper by Hoop Tea
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stront mierda דרעק or paska, no matter which language you say it in, my selections yesterday were sh*t.
Let’s try something different and go west. Lone Star for one race today and Santa Anita for two.
Lone Star Park Race 2 - $34K Maiden Special Weight
Fillies and mares 3yo↑ going 5f on turf
Three of the nine that are entered today have been Breezefig* tested.
You can see that #1 Rumpus (4/1) scored the best of the three getting a Group 1, and she has the best stride length of 25.66 feet. She is also coming off the highest Equibase score (76) of the nine. Claimed on March 28 for the barn of Jaime Castellanos, she has shown early speed and likely will be the one to shake loose from the pack. She’s had two marginal workouts since being claimed. That appeared concerning, yet it is really just her mo – she shows a greater interest come race day. #2 Aidanlike (3/1) started her career two back in huge fashion hitting an 81 Equibase figure at Oaklawn and just missing by a neck. She smoked the stretch in that race in :12.70 after clocking the previous furlong in :11.70. That was a $30K mcl and the connections felt confident, so they moved her up three weeks later to a $93K msw where she got out of the gate badly and was no factor. This filly does not have turf pedigree, yet 19 of the sires’ foals have 73 starts and 16 wins, or 22%. It still feels like a Hail Mary. #5 More Romance (15/1) gets an upgrade in jockey to David Cabrera, and she may fool you today. Check out her breeze in Ocala here, she is hip 886 and you will see her run with her ears pinned forward and a powerful, fluid stride. I am looking for a regression out of #6 Still Of The Night (7/2) and I believe that Steve Asmussen's, horse Gran Manna (9/2), along with Rumpus are the two to beat.
Santa Anita Race 2 - $61K Maiden Special Weight
Cal Bred or sired 2yo’s going 4.5 furlongs
#4 Barsini Red (9/5) ran against a buzzsaw named Big City Lights last out on May 2 scoring a 65 Equibase number. Big City Lights ran such an impressive performance that he put up a 102 Equibase figure in his bow. To give you a comparison, Life Is Good, in his first outing, put up a 106. Since his last race, Barsini Red has worked a 1:01 and a :47.6, so he is ready to go. #3 Rock N Rye (5/2) also took a butt whuppin’ by Big City Lights and finished third in that race behind Barsini Red. He has since had a four furlong workout in :50. That dull of a workout makes you wonder whether the race took something out of him, or the trainer wanted to just take it easy. #8 Agador Spartacus (4/1) (yes, Hank Azaria’s character’s name in The Birdcage) ran fourth in the butt kicking contest by Big City Lights at 25/1 odds and has had two works since. Both works are so/so. Toss. #5 Sauls Call (8/1) is trained by 21% first timer Steven Miyadi. His works have been pedestrian, and this may be the trainer’s style, or it could be the geldings output. Cesar Ortega up and with Miyadi, they are 29%. This pair could be dangerous. We will find out today. #6 Louie Zamperini (8/1) Of course you have to mention the book Unbroken by Laura Hillenbrand. He too is trained by Steven Miyadi and his works have been below par.
Given the rail bias in sprints at Santa Anita of late, I am going to take a shot with second time starter and alumni of the butt kicking by Big City Lights, #1 Takeittothebank (12/1) removing Kent Desormeaux from the irons and a :47.4 workout from the gate clinched it for me.
Santa Anita Race 3 - $61K Maiden Special Weight
Cal Bred or Sired 3yo’s ↑ going one mile on turf
There are four that I like. #1 Circleofchampions (4/1) never count out a Carla Gains horse in a turf race. This colt has the best last Equibase figure of 88 and just worked six furlongs in 1:13.6 and five in 1:01. Cutting back an eighth of a mile looks to be a wise move. #9 Tallemark (6/1) is the only four year old and has looked like an entirely better horse since switching to turf two back, posting Equibase numbers of 91 and 80, respectively. His last race was after a four month sabbatical and since that time he is put in a 1:01.8 workout on 5/22. #8 Harbor Sky (10/1) gets a 5lb. weight break with. apprentice jockey Jessica Pyfer, effectively giving him a three length head start. Trainer Sean McCarthy with four wins or 50% in the past 30 days and he has this Majestic Harbor colt humming with a :47.6 work on May 17. His dam, Starry Skies, won at first asking. I am taking the 1st Lasix, 1st gelding angle with #5 Eagle In The Sky (7/2) and Trevor McCarthy on board. Last summer, I was getting in my car, and on a lark, I opened the NYRA Bets app and noticed a turf race at Laurel was about to go off. Trevor’s horse was at 24/1 and I tossed $10 to win on it knowing how adept he is on turf. Yes, Trevor rated that horse excellently and he won by a half a length, making my day. For all of you reading this, keep an eye on Trevor McCarthy on turf. He is very, very good and very, very dangerous.
Happy Hunting 😊
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex. There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June