Hooptie Handicapping 3.31.21
Spring Edition, Volume 1
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Welcome to the unique, ubiquitous, unctuous, and unexpurgated exclusive first edition of Hooptie Handicapping. This is where you will get the rare glimpse of what the poor horses are doing. Assuredly, you will never see one of these in a derby, a stakes race, or, unlikely, an allowance race. Oh, and in case you have not heard of it, in my home state of Minnesota, a hooptie is a car that runs, yet not particularly well, and is something you never want to pick up your first date in.
Starting off today is the 1st race from Mahoning Valley. This is a $15,000 maiden claiming event for Ohio bred fillies and mares. In the history of reading Equibase PP's, never have I seen a rating this low . . . 32. Yes, this is hoopdie handicapping at its best. Straight out of the gate, we have hit the mother lode of low. PT Barnum would be spot on if one of these gets claimed.
For this race, we are going to go with the #8 Discreet Energy (10/1). A year ago, she was racing against much tougher company and has put up higher numbers than the rest. On March 21, she put in a solid :36 workout over three furlongs. With that workout, look for her to jump to the lead, set the pace, and have the others fall back and never make a bid as this level of horse never does.
Next, we’ll jump in our hooptie, find I-86 west and head to Claremore, Oklahoma for the 5th race at Will Rogers Downs. This is a 5.5 furlong, $23,760 maiden special weight race for girl horses three years old and up. We are going to make a $1.00 exacta box with four horses, a $1.00 trifecta box with four horses, and a $0.10 superfecta box with five horses. All are $12.00 per bet, or $36.00 in total. For the exacta and trifecta boxes, we are going to take #7 Gospel Carlotta (10/1), a 4yo filly who has two races and both consistently better results than the rest, #8 Oteka Be First (6/1), a second time starter, getting second, Lasix who, in her debut entered a $100,000 Stakes, ran well to set the pace and tired, #9 Acting Sweet (8/1) another second starter, second Lasix, who went off at very low odds at Remington in December in a statie msw, and performed poorly. She was bet down on the strength of her workouts. Her one workout at this track was not that great, so it makes you wonder if someone is not sandbagging to get a price. Finally, #1 Spent It At Harrys (12/1) another second time starter coming out of Remington, where she ran in a state bred msw, set the pace and tired as well. The way her last two workouts have gone, I am also going to bet her to win because she's in great form and at 12/1 odds, you gotta like that. To round out the Super, we are going to add in #6 LaMorena (20/1), a first-time starter who just turned in a fantastic :47 workout from the gate. Look for her to jump out to an early lead with that first Lasix and give a go. We didn't like either one of the favorites in this due to the fact that they both tend to have a propensity to fade off and have gotten the losing habit.
Let’s stay right here and bet #2 Far Left (5/2) in the 8th. This is a $7.5 Okie bred mcl with 3yo’s↑ running (ideally), 5.5f. Far Left has not raced in a year and this short of a price is not ideal. Though, given the talent gap between these, he’ll get the job done today.
For the nightcap, we're going to find I-44 W, then pick up I-75 S and make our way to Sam Houston Race Park for the 4th race.
This is a $5000 maiden claiming event going five and a half furlongs for Texas bred fillies and mares three years old and up.
Naturally, Steve Asmussen's horse, #4 Clipper Cove (6/5) is the morning line favorite. However, we view this is a red herring because last year she raced a couple races at Lone Star in open company and was a money burner. She then raced in a $25,000 claimer and ended up getting a 3rd place check. Benched for eight months, she entered a state bred $25,000 maiden claimer and again, burned through a lot of money only getting up for third place. Today, she drops all the way down to a $5000 claiming race for Texas bred horses and we view this as with a pregnant pause. Yes, Asmussen is the leading trainer in the country and the leading trainer at Lone Star, however, his winning percent is 23% which means that he loses 77% of the time. Therefore, we are going with #9 Casting Pearls (3/1). This four-year-old filly is coming right back after her debut two weeks ago, where she passed a few horses and ended up getting up for second place dinero. Tonight, she retains the same rider, gets second Lasix, and will press the pace and close late.
Happy hooptie betting 😊