3yo fillies racing six furlongs
Equibase has this race rated at 40 and the only horse that has run that number is #1a Shirleytheshopper (6/5). Claimed by Jamie Ness (34%) at Churchill on 11/20 for $15K, she will be ridden by Jamie Rodriguez and they are a 24% win tandem. In her last and only race, she pressed the lead through the first four furlongs, came four wide and tired on the stretch. She is coupled with #1 Squealer who very well can take this, putting up a 37 Beyer, 2nd best to her stablemate in this group, and returning Reuben Silvera to the irons.
This is Shirley’s test results from Ocala Breeders Testing facility in June. She was in Group 2 and the highlighted 71 is her score. The 66 score to the right is the average that day and 76 was the high. The figure to the right, 22.97, is her stride length vs. 23.44 for that day and group. Short striding horses like her are best in sprints with 6.5 furlongs being their line of demarcation. She, on paper, looks to be the likely winner, yet at 6/5, and more than likely dropping, this is not worth the chance.
#7 Third Time Success (15/1) may be worth using underneath.
All three of her races have been at Parx. Her first was an msw where she gave a decent debut, getting the lead at the first 1/4, staying within ½ length through the half and then fading off. Dropping to a $25K claimer in her next, she, again, gave a strong jump to stay near to the half and then faded again. Finally, in her last, after a month layoff, she stayed at the $25K level and dogged it in the slop. She just had a 3F freshening on 1/6, so look for her to spring to the lead and maybe hold on to hot the board.
#6 Get Her Readyeddie (15/1) is dropping out of open company and into the claiming ranks.
Getting first Lasix and a big class drop today will help. After two races, she showed improvement in her last, posting a 32 Beyer in $34K msw company. That race was in the slop and she showed a non-proclivity for the going. That was less than three weeks ago and she is going to get a better trip today with Dexter Haddock getting his second chance on board.
#4 Kirk’s Girl (7/2) is a first time starter to consider.
Scoring an ideal stride length, her works have been about as expected for a $10K mcl race. Trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero impressive with first starters, 25%, first Lasix, 33%, and 10 wins with Mychael Sanchez for a 50% strike rate. If she can overcome the bumping at the gate, the traffic and, dirt kickback and some stings of the whip, she, thus far, has not had a bad race and if she gets to the front, she has a chance.
The entry are the ones to beat. I will be playing Third Time Success underneath, seeking more value.
4yo’s↑ running one mile and seventy yards.
#3 Sight Line (4/1) re-reclaim for Howard Brown, who has a subpar return on 1st claimers, he exits a win at Parx and is climbing up a notch. Mychael Sanchez takes the mount and two back, Sanchez won with him in a $5K N1Y claimer. He exits a race where the returnees have not fared well next out. #4 Three Phase (5/2) clearly showed his disdain for being in Grantville, PA. by propping, then tossing his rider last out on December 11. Returning to Parx, where he is 10:2-2-3 for $53K, he has not shown a penchant for this distance, acquiring a 4:0-2-1 record. Being a closer, his pace projection is 78 and there are others in this with higher numbers in that aspect. #5 Mucho Mas Grande (6/1) second time racing for the Jeff Englehart barn, his last was a vast improvement from long before. Despite that, every entrant from that regressed in their next, and most had never run the number they put up on that November 24th. #6 Flat Bill (8/1) drops to the claiming ranks where he was much more competitive this past early fall. His last race, a $5K starter allowance on December 30th, he finally hit the board after four previous poor attempts. He is usable underneath. #2 Financial Freedom (7/2) Equibase gives this race an 86 rating and he, as well as Three Phase, are the only two who have competitive races at that level.
#4 Three Phase and the 5lb break for having 25% route winner, bugboy Laureano Flores is the choice. Had the weight break not been in this, I would have gone with Financial Freedom.