RT Report 10.13.2020
I have been using STATS Race Lens since I returned to handicapping races a few years ago. Recently, they reported a “core systems failure” and have been in an outage since Saturday. I have a strong opinion about the real reason, and I’ll leave it at that.
For now, it’s TimeformUS and tonight we have a couple of allowance races from Mountaineer.
Race 3 $$17.8K Allowance girl horses 3yo’s NW2. 1 Mile, 70 yards on turf
SmartCap has surfaced #10 Loving Moment (4/5) as the best, and by the looks of the numbers, she should romp. However, being the contrarian, I am going against her for this reason – of the five two-turn races she has had, she soiled the bed. I realize this is lighter competition, however, the fact remains that her turning ability may get magnified worse with the 66 turns to get this distance at Mountaineer. So, I am going with the second time starter #5 Flat Diamond (5/1) who broke her maiden six weeks ago in easy fashion. Her trainer, Aaron West, is 18% with first turf and 15% going from sprint to route.
Race 8 - $15K Allowance Optional Claimer for 3yo+ NWx or NW2 going 5.5 furlongs
#1 Lewys Vaporizer (2/1) has best overall speed numbers and near best class. He is 5:2-1-0 at this distance for $18K and with the switch of jockey, you may not see him take the lead straight away. #8 Soul Machen (3/1) scored two back against WVa breds at Charles Town in a $28K allowance and entered a similar race on Sept. 14, where he was forced wide to just miss by ½ length. He has yet to score a win at Mnr and at this distance, yet will loom a danger in this one. #6 Pettinberg (7/2) wired a similar group last out at 4.5 furlongs and is 2:1-0-1 for $11k at this distance. Look for him to tale the lead again with Luis Colon getting his second trip with him. #2 Honor Life (5/1) has best last and hasn’t seen a fast track since Presque two months ago. Although he was competitive in the last races on off tracks, tonight’s fast track will be a welcome relief. This grandson of Unbridled is 5:2-2-0 for $24K at Mountaineer and Vigil gets his third try in the irons.
I like #8 Soul Machen. Coming from the outside post, he’ll be unimpeded and have a shot down the stretch.
Happy Hunting .
