Today we're looking at two races at Ft. Erie. I was going back to Parx, but there’s rain in the forecast this afternoon.
#7 Mystery Day (3/1) given her numbers, she will take money in this. However, with a 6:0-0-0 on turf and 2:0-0-0 on Ft. Erie turf, and both sire and dam were not turf runners, it seems she is not suited for the surface.
#3 One For Nicki (6/1) has best overall class, send best speed and best last. This five-year-old mare is 2:1-0-0 on FE turf and 9:1-2-2 on turf overall. After breaking her maiden in June on her fourth attempt, she was moved to allowance company and ran competitively, yet fell short. Dropped in class last out, she ran evenly. Today, she stretches out a furlong and gets a four pound break in the weights. Look for her to lay up and press in the latter stages of the race.
# 5 – Musical Flight (5/2) there will be no doubt who will get the lead in this and it’s this granddaughter of Flying Continental. Having wired the field at 6.5 furlongs last out in an MCL event, she switches to turf and will stretch out and attempt to make the same run. I am not convinced this is going to work for her today.
#1 Moon Rover (8/1) does not have the numbers similar to the aforementioned, however, she has the best jockey in this race and the best turf trainer by comparison. Crawford is 30% on turf and 40% in routes and trainer Michael Blake is 33% in routes and 18% on turf.
My pick: I’m going with the #1 - Moon Rover. Given the level of this competition, jockey skill will be the prevailing factor.
The only horse in this race that isn’t shipping in from synthetic Woodbine or has recently ran on turf…..with the exception of number #9 Thor’s Thunder (6/1). Changing back to jockey Helen Vanek, who is better with horses on the lead, look for him to do exactly that – get out in front and wore the group. Yes, #7 Shangaash (8/1) has best overall numbers as well as #6 Silencium (3/1) and #8 Fahrenheit (4/1), however, after watching FE for some time, rarely do Woodbine shippers get a win in their first out….until today, probably, now that I wrote that.
My pick: #9 Thor’s Thunder
Happy Hunting 😊
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BTP 4 – Tide Rising
FL 6 – Ganondagan
FP 5 – Flashy Look
PRX 7 – Neon City
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FL 6 – Von Aldenbruck
PRX 10 – Flatexcel
FL 6 – Von Aldenbruck
PRX 10 – Flatexcel
PiD 3 – Bentley’s Palace
Ind 2 – Henry Rules
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