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On Monday, Dec. 30, we are heading to NYC for the 7th at Aqueduct. This is an $82K Allowance for staties, 3yo+ going six furlongs.
SmartCap thru Equibase likes #1 – Honor Up (9/5), with the best overall speed, class and last two and I am not going to bet him. This colt has been on the bench since May and that angle does not play into trainer Michelle Nevins’ strengths. Michelle is only 9% with horses off a layoff of six plus months and just 9% switching from route to sprints.
Instead, I am going with #5 – Dugout (5/1). If you watched Omaha Beach easily cruise to a W on Saturday in The Malibu Stakes, you’ll have noticed Manny Wah come three deep into the stretch, angle in-between horses and gamely hold on for third – a notable effort. In his last, Dugout beat Manny Wah at Mahoning Valley coming from off the pace, at a heavily speed bias track, and won going away. Trainer Larry Rivelli 27% wins the past thirty days, 32% when he won his last race, 36% on dirt and 26% in allowance races. Aqueduct has been playing to speed of late, so look for jockey Eric Cancel (16%) to stay near the pace then take over in the turn and not look back.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.