For Monday, December 16th, we are going to Mahoning Valley in Youngstown, Ohio for an Allowance Optional Claimer – the 7th race.
The weather is supposed to be cloudy and in the high 30’s.
We have a field of ten horses in this six furlong race for Ohio bred 3-year-olds. There is a $33.7K purse, the claiming price is $25K, and Equibase gives this a par of 93. We’ll see if all ten run with the impending snow.
SmartCap surfaced three best last as, #2 – Mannford (15/1), #10 Classic Mo (5/1), and #4 Pat’s Karma (2/1). #9 Tiz A Rush (3/1), gets best overall speed and Pat’s Karma gets best overall class.
Close to getting the best overall class, best overall speed and best last, #2 – Mannford is going to be my choice. This 5-year-old gelding is a lover of MVR with a 10:4-3-1 record for $98K. That gives him a 40% win rate and $9800 every time he gets out of the gate. Earlier this past winter/spring, Mannford waged a solid campaign here winning two and getting a place at this level. He moved up, won an open allowance race, then got nosed out in a similar. Jockey Gabriel Lagunes gets his first shot with him and this horse has taken to the jockey – hitting a bullet five furlong work besting thirty others one week ago.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.