Can multiple Graded Stakes winner Frostmourne triumph in his first comeback?
That’ll be the question for the 8th race at Gulfstream today.
This is a $75K AOC on the turf for three-year olds and up.
Normally jumping on a horse with this type of class in a field of this caliber is a relatively sound play. However, given a few factors, 6/5 ml odds, a fourteen-month sabbatical and the digression of his last race gives one pause. We’re talking about the #3 – Frostmourne (6/5) who was taken out of action in October of 2018 and is set to return. Since then, he was gelded in April, has had consistently improving works and his trainer is a solid 17% winners with horses being out 6+ months. This is not to mention that his jockey, Irad Ortiz, is nailing 30% winners on turf at GP. Yet, I keep gravitating to Eddie Kenneally's entry, #4 – Projected (5/2) and for these two reasons – the positive jockey change to Paco Lopez and the connections moving this UK gelding away from Chad Brown. You may consider it a dumb move on ownerships’ part, however, there are some horses who need care from a smaller stable and this may be the tonic. Kenneally is 25% with horses of 2-6 months, 31% on turf and 27% changing from route to sprint (which this guy needs) and 25% with Lopez. Incidentally, Paco is no stiff on the turf clanging in 30% winners.
Today, you’re going to see a much different running style out of this horse – he’ll be flying around the turn and into Gulfstream's short stretch.
Until tomorrow….follow me at @RtsSpot
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
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