Today we’re going to Gulfstream Park for a $25K optional claimer for fillies and mares. They’re going five furlongs on turf.
When we ran the Equibase numbers through SmartCap, we ended up with a mixed bag.
#9 Sugar Bolt (7/2) has the best last figures and is coming off a win here in September. That race was a $47K allowance and now is entered for the same jackpot, yet has a different jockey as her last rider switched to the #8 – Lady Magica (6/1). Hmmm.
#8 Lady Magica (6/1) is also coming off a win, yet it was versus state breds and is racing protected from being claimed today. Her trainer, Zerpa Gilberto, is 40% moving horses up in class, 26% when he’s won his last and 32% with jockey Emisael Jaramillo. A contender.
#2 Catharsis (5/2) has best overall speed and second best in class. Her last race results are a misnomer because she was caught in traffic and was full of run. She darn near won in spite of those troubles. One caution – in her last race, the winner, Nikee Kan, returned to get stomped, so maybe that wasn’t a great race after all?
#4 Awsum Roar (4/1) is going to take a lot of money in this because she has peeled off four wins in a row, albeit against much weaker company.
I am going with the #8 Lady Magica. I believe that jockey Jaramillo and his agent know which one of these is going to give them the best chance to win. Additionally, this jockey was fifth in the earlier meets standings, mounting 52 wins to the leaders 66.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.