Thursday Horse Racing: RT and SmartCap pick the 6th race at Aqueduct

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Today we’re going to analyze the 6th at Aqueduct, a 6-furlong sprint with ten entrants, on the turf for fillies and mares who are 3yo+. This is an Allowance Optional Claimer for NY breds which have never won $13K twice other than maiden, claiming or starter, or which have never win three races.

At post time, it is supposed to be 43 degrees and not knowing the conditions of the turf course, we have to take two different approaches.

#1 ON the Turf

Reviewing SmartCap figure 1, two horses have surfaced that are standouts among the rest - #4 – A Little Faith (3/1), a 3yo filly with a 4:2-2-0 turf record for $87K and #7 – Hannah’s Smile (5/1), a 5yo mare with a turf record of 10:3-1-3 for $132,617. Additionally, the #9 – Forgotten Hero (15/1), just nailed the best last getting a 100/142 with Equibase/SmartCap numbers.

Looking over the pp’s, Hannah’s Smile hasn’t raced since November of last year. Her workouts have been marginal and trainer, Michelle Nevin, is only a 3% proposition in this spot. Forgotten Hero showed some serious jump last time in a $77K allowance leading up to the stretch before fading worse than Janis Joplins’ jeans. Also, Benjamin Hernandez is up and he is colder than a dead gynecologist's hands outside, getting 0% winners the past ten days. Which, if on turf, narrows it down to #4 – A Little Faith who is ridden by stud jockey Johnny V and trained by Bruce Levine, whom together are fetching 25% winners. Bruce is also a 28% win prop after a last win.

If this stays on the turf, I will entertain a win/place bet at odds of 2-1 or greater.

#2 OFF the turf

Reviewing SmartCap again (figure 2), we have the same characters with best numbers. This leads to looking at their respective dirt races

#4 – 0 dirt races

#9 - 6 dirt races with two wins.

#7 – 0 dirt races

Extrapolating this a little further (figure 3), SmartCap has the wherewithal to remove data and reset the algorithm. You’ll see that of the horses who have dirt experience, the #1 Bank Examiner (7/5), has best last, best overall class and is short on best overall speed. The #2 – Cathy Naz (3/1), has best last and is right up there with best overall class and speed.

If this race goes off the turf, I am most inclined to bet the 2.

Happy Hunting!

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SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrant's best last race with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? Because it identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape usually win.

The figures on the right represent its overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from a second race at Penn National. To the right of this is this race's class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this race, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. Given the #10 having the best last and close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. Which it did win going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley and Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

A few rules of the road…

• You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this chart tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

• Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

• We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

• Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

• We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

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