Mahoning Valley Race Course
Tuesday, November 5th
Weather: Rain tailing off at post time 50°
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Our SmartCap plays are available per card or individual races.
Yesterday sucked. Yes, it sucked and yes, it was my fault. There is no sense in re-hashing it and it will be a major lesson learned.
Our publisher is a Penn grad whom is on his way to T Town to watch the Quakers take on the Tide in hoops. After 7 years in Alabama, I wrote to him stating “Quakers +7 looks inviting to me…. too much Tua/Saban/RMFT things for the BBall team to worry about y’all “smart yankees” having a decent team….”
Go Penn.
1:12est Race 2
7.5K 3yo+ Ohio Bred claimers NW3 going 6 furlongs
#3 Ransom The Bull (9/2) had two solid races at Belterra after dropping out of allowance company, was moved to Thistledown, moved up the claiming ladder and took a dump. Today, this gelding gets his regular rider Gabriel Lagunes who, after betting here last year, is substantially better than his current record. If this jockey can stalk the pace and not get caught up in besting the #7, #4, & #2 attempts to wire the field, he has the class to turn it on in the stretch.
Bet $35/w $70p #3
1:40est Race 3
$7.5K 3yo+ Ohio Bred claimers NW3 going 6 furlongs
#2 Captain Billy Bud (6/1) is there a Captain Vere in this field? 😊
Below are the numbers for this guy -
#3, Doc’s Goin Mobil, has best last. #2, Captain Billy Bud has best overall and best class with #2 near. So, why not take the best last with near to the best overall numbers? You have to consult the pp’s. By contrast-
#3 – Trainer win % 0
#3 – Jockey win % 9
Together – 10%
#2 – Trainer win % 27
#2 – Jockey win % 15
Together – 26%
Bets $50/w $100/p #2
2:08est Race 4
$8K Starter Allowance 3yo+ fillies and mares going 6 furlongs
#9 Paint Dakota (9/5) this filly gets an Equibase/SmartCap sweep scoring an 85/110 overall with the closest being a 58/107 and the best last figures of 96/128 and the next best are 77/133. Leading rider Gerardo Corrales, 8 wins 24% thus far, aboard and an excellent trainer, Rodriguez Murillo (50%). Also, Murillo is, this year, 41% wins after a win, 40% on dirt and 44% in sprints. If you have an Equibase virtual stable, add this guy. If you do not have one, get one. It’s free.
The best $100/w $200/p #9
The rest
Race 5 - #1 CJ’s Flair (6/1)
Race 6 - #6 Don’t Text N Drive (3/1)
Race 7 - #1 Prairie Chief (10/1)
Race 8 - #6 Optimistic Shot (6/1)
The comparison of Timeform (below) vs Equibase(above) race of the day is a $39K, 6-furlong allowance at Zia Park. This is for New Mexican bred fillies and mares. You’ll see that Equibase has 2 as the overall speed, 3 as the overall class and 4 as the best last. Timeform has the 3 as best overall speed and class as well as the 4 with best last.
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