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Mahoning Valley Race Course
Wednesday, October 30th
Rain forecast between 3 and 4 pm
12:45 est Race 1
$31.3 Allowance for Ohio Breds, NW2, 3yo+ going 6 furlongs
#3 Beauloved (9/2) broke his maiden two back in closed company and fast tracked to an allowance race a month later. The winner of his last race, Buckeye Kitten, stretched out and ran up to the lead before tiring and getting beat badly. This race is a turnback for this gelding and he learned a lesson last out from going against a better class. Second leader Christian Pillares retains the mount and will be nearer the lead today.
#1 Lunar Cap (3/1) has best SmartCap and Equibase speed ratings in this group and leading rider Gerardo Corrales is up for his second look.
#4 Nothinglastsforever (5/2) the only runner in here that has hit on, or above, Equibases’ speed ratings for this race. This frontrunner has the capacity to hit the lead and not look back.
#6 High Dollar (5/1) gets a positive jockey switch to Erik Barbaran today and I look for this gelding to hit the board. Broke his maiden after fourteen tries, moved up to this level and is now looking for a second crack at allowance company.
Bet – Trifecta $2 4-1/4-1-3/6, 4-1/6/4-1-3, 6/4-1/4-1-3
1:40 est Race 3
$5K Claiming for fillies and mares going 1 mile, 70 yards
#5 Wedding Day Kitten (3/1) has far and away the highest Equibase speed and class ratings than any other in here. 24% wins rider Luis Quinones excellent at rating horses in route races and I look for him to keep this 5yo mare near the leader, #4 – Squatchingwithlyss and overtaking her in the turn to get up for the V.
Bets - $50/w $100/p #5
2:36 est Race 5
$32.7K Allowance for Ohio Bred fillies and mares NW3 going 6 furlongs
#6 Heidi’s Back (5/1) threw in an absolute dog four back and has since ran her best Equibase/SmartCap numbers in an increasing manner since. This race is listed as a class rating of 66 and her numbers have been 70 of recent, 60, 2 back, and 42 three races ago. If she shows a modicum of improvement in this, it’ll be enough to win.
#1 Dolly Dear (5/2) lover of MVR, she has a record of 6:1-2-3 getting an average of $7241 every time she is sent to post. Sonny Leon had this mount two back and scored a win in a $25K allowance at Belterra. Trainer Robert Gorham 23% wins in class down situations
#4 Adventure Land (8/5) two attempts at Mahoning Valley, one win and didn’t hit the board in the other. Her win here was in a $22K MSW race and has been erratic since, yet all in allowance company. After seven tries in this company, the trainer has yet to move her down in class which gives the impression that there is more in the tank.
#8 Rolling All The Way (12/1) was going to be my top choice and when I noticed her trainer, Julie Pappada, has a 0% win rate of horses that have been on layoff from two to six months, I acquiesced. Can she break the chain today? Maybe. Will use in exotics
Bets - $50/w $100/p #6 Trifecta 4-1/4-1-8/6, 4/1/6/4-1-8, 6/4-1/4-1-8
The rest
Race 6 - #4 Just Flashy (15/1)
Race 8 - #10 Wolf Eyes (9/2)