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Belmont Park October 23rd
Perfect weather on Long Island – Sunny and 63̊ at post time
As I write this, it’s the middle of the 7th in the World Series and The Nats remind me of the ’03 Marlins – playing loose, scrappy and having fun. We’ll see…. It’s 5-2
1:15 est Race 1
$14K Claimers NW2 3yo+ Fillies and Mares going 6 furlongs on dirt
#4 - First Forever (5/2) went looking for the second best Equibase numbers through our SmartCap program. I didn’t like the favorite, #3 – Citizen Matzo, because she is coming off four straight turf races and is moving down the ladder too much, too fast, vis-à-vis, smacking of desperation and maybe health troubles. This Take Charge Indy filly comes out of a formidable key race, takes a modest class drop and has the best last numbers. Jockey Jose Lezcano on fire of late hitting 27% winners the past ten days and trainer Jeremiah Engelhart (33%) is third in the standings for the meet behind Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher – pretty lofty company.
Bets - $50/w $100/p #4
1:49 est Race 2
$20K Maiden Claimers 3yo+ going 6.5 furlongs on dirt
#4 – Loaded Joe (2/1) first off the claim for Rob Atras and his numbers in this situation are strong – 27% on dirt, 22% turf to dirt, 24% mcl and 25% with jockey Manny Franco. I have this gelding at a speed rating of 91 and a class rating at 137. The nearest speed rating is 64 and nearest class is 94, so he stands head and shoulders above. Given the subordinate form of the others, Manny will take him to the front and not look back.
Bets - $50/w $100/p #3
2:23 est Race 3
$12.5K Claimers 3yo+ going 1 mile and 16th on dirt
#5 – Armament (3/1) has been claimed about as much as a Conkling Street harlot, Chris Englehart has him now. On the bench since early August, this War Front/Seattle Slew gelding has had steady and improving workouts since. He gets class relief today and this is Engelharts’ first time with Declan Carroll (13%), a deceptively good jockey, riding for him.
Bets - $25/w $50/p #5
The rest –
Race 4 - #10 Grudge (7/2)
Race 5 - #1 Bellavia (9/5)
Race 6 - #7 Sweet Meadow Mist (5/2)
Race 7 – # 7 Rapt (8/1)
Race 8 - #6 More Glitter (7/2)