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Hump Day
East of the Mississippi Allowance Wednesday
For good measure, here are my football picks this weekend:
Houston/Cincinnati over 54.5 … both offenses can put up the numbers to get this done
Army – 4.5 at Western Kentucky ... the cadets probably got their asses kicked around the practice field this week after dropping the last to Tulane. Look for a big turnaround
New Orleans +1.5 @ Jacksonville ... keep riding the Who Dats’
POW – Philly +3 @ Minnesota … I live in Minnesota and because Cousins had a solid outing against a subpar Giants D, the “turnaround” has begun….bullshit. Philly surging and playing the best ball of any NFL team. Vikings have beaten Atlanta (bfd), Oakland (bfd) and The NY Giants (bfd). LAY THE WOOD
Horses on my radar
Three Technique – owned by Bill Parcells and scratched from last Saturdays’ Champagne, this guy has a killer late kick
Jais’s Solitude – dq’d his last and that was a fluke – ran away with the race
Tiz Alluptomenow – gave Welder a helluva run before ceding in the David Vance at Remington.
Embossed – entered Friday at Laurel in the 7th for two year olds, this Michael Stidham rookie filly has quite the breeding – Medalia d’Oro sire and Golden Velvet dam. For those unfamiliar with Golden Velvet, keep that dam's name in mind. She gets 38% winners. Godolphin paid $250K (about an hours pay for the owner) for this young lady.
Wednesday in ponies
Keeneland
Sunny and clear – glorious fall day 77̊
3:51 est 6th Race - $73K Allowance for boys 3+ years of age going 6.5 furlongs on dirt
#4 – Honest Mischief (1/1) Juddmonte Farms/Javier/Chad Brown colt will probably go off at sub even odds and with his class, deserves it. There are, however, a couple of overlooked entries that caught my eye.
#6 – American Mandate (15/1) led Haikal in his maiden race to get nipped at the wire. Haikal returned to win The Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, The Gotham and ran 3rd in the Wood Memorial. Meanwhile, Mandate won its next at Aqu and then hit two off tracks, to his dismay, only to have Asmussen bench him until today. This Lemon Drop Kid colt has been working forwardly for this “debut” including a 5 furlong gate work in 1:00 flat. Will he win? Maybe not, however, the price is worth throwing in your exotics.
#3 – Tight Ten (12/1) $300K colt out of Tapit qualified for The $2M Breeders Cup Juvenile less than a year ago and had traffic trouble, was steadied and hit the rail. Since that time, he has had such troubles his next three getting bumped around and having to be checked frequently. Went off as the third choice to Plus Que Parfait, War of Will and Hog Creek Hustle. He has since been on the bench for two months with steady preps and should be ready. This guy has the class if he gets a solid trip.
#7 – Airtouch (2/1) $150K Tapit four-year-old with two races and Johnny V/Pletcher connections. Got caught at the wire first out and won going away in his next out in a turn back in distance. His high weight of 124 reflects age, not ability.
The Bets:
Taking a flyer on Tight Ten
$50/win $100/place
For $12 - $2 Exacta Box 4-6-3
For $12 - $1 Trifecta
4-6/4-6-7/3
4-6/3/4-6-7
3/4-6/4-6-7
Finger Lakes
Rain Rain Rain
3:25 est 6th Race - $21K Allowance for girls going six furlongs
Even though she’s coming off a loooong layoff, in the slop, you have to sometimes say F it, so I’m looking no further and betting #3 Hey Lady (8/1).
Pursuant to Pitsburg Phil – “Look for improvement of mares in the fall of the year. They train better and are more consistent.” She is not only the only mare in this race, she’s the only entry over three years old. To boot? Gets the hot jock/trainer combo of Gomez/Iario and they almost scored a win together in the slop two back.
The Bets:
$75/win $150 place
Thistledown
Sunny and beautiful 76̊
4:40 est 7th Race – Allowance for boys going five and a half furlongs
#3 – Galactic (3/1) comes into this with far and away the best last figures signifying being in sharp condition. Also, this Gemologist gelding has the equivalent advantage in class rating. Check this out – jockey Gerardo Corrales is clipping at 32% wins the past thirty days; trainer Tim Hamm is at 23% wins the past thirty and together, they’re winning 46% of the time. Look for Corrales to take him to the front, set the pace and open up in the stretch.
The bets:
#3 $200/place
$100/win