Thoroughbreds: RT looks at the Sunday XCountry Pick5 races at Belmont and Lone Star
April 28, 2019
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2 items of note:
Golden Gate has a guaranteed $100K late pick 4
Gulfstream has a P6 pool of $606K going into today.
Musings:
Here’s a riddle for you…
Notwithstanding entertainers/Hollywood, what do Rodney Dangerfield, Boz Scaggs, Phoebe Cates and Rick Moranis have in common? You’ll have to email me to find out - rtsspotplays@bettorsinsider.com
Here are today’s races for the XCountry Pick 5 and my bet is at the end:
Leg 1: Belmont Park - Race 7 (4:45 pm)
Leg 2: Lone Star Park - Race 6 (5:05 pm)
Leg 3: Belmont Park - Race 8 (5:18 pm)
Leg 4: Lone Star Park - Race 7 (5:40 pm)
Leg 5: Belmont Park - Race 9 (5:51 pm)
Leg 1:
$80K MSW for 3yo+ going 7f
The skinny:
2 – Tiz Morning (8/1) I know, betting a horse who hasn’t won in eleven times is a lower than average prop. However, Tiz is the only 4yo in this group, outran his speed par last out, gets a much-needed cutback and has Junior Alvarado up today. Also, this race will have a ton of front speed and sets up well for him.
7 – Fullness Of Time Chad Brown/Javier Castellano team will take a lot of money today…as usual. The question is, does she need a race after this 7-month layoff? Her works have been pedestrian, yet Brown is stellar with 6+ month pine riders – 31%.
3 – Spice Road (5/2) going 7f in its first out on St. Patrick’s Day, this Godolphin colt got off to a bad start, as with most first Lasix users, and once Joel Rosario got him moving, Spice throttled the stretch in :12.8 for the final furlong.
5 – Presto (5/1) going with Johnny V/Todd Pletcher here. Second Lasix, bad start its first and only time and 3 solid works since last. Florida shippers to NY tracks are usually a good bet.
Belmont Race 7 Bets
2 - $20/w, $40/p
$2 Exacta box 2-3-7
$1 Trifecta 5-3/5-3-7/2, 5-3/2/5-3-7, 2/5-3/5-3-7
Leg 2
$20K MCL for 3yo+ going 5f, Turf
The Skinny:
Looking for Steve Asmussen horses because he had his boo-tie handed to him yesterday and will rebound today.
4 – Mighty Merle (7/2) Verrazano colt had his first out a month ago in an MSW andnow drops to a claimer. He chased the leader before giving way in that before tiring. Asmussen trained Merle has four slower workouts since then, telling you their intentions – longer distance, slower start and closing finish.
9 – Bettercalljohn (6/1) Karl Broberg claimee getting his second start in a week, moves up in class and clocked a bullet :35.2, 3f work, showing he’s capable.
2 – Major Shipman (8/1) certainly not a favorite with my West Point buddies, this Whitelow trained, recent gelding has had a tough time at the gate in his three starts. Now that he’s had the ultimate equipment change, look for a dramatic improvement today.
Lone Star Race 6 Bets:
4 - $20/w $40/p
$2 Exacta box 4-2-9
$1 Trifecta 9-2/9-2-6/4, 9-2/4/9-2-6, 4/9-2/9-2-6
Leg 3
$66K Allowance for NY Bred F & M 3yo+ going 6f
The Skinny:
8 – Miss Hot Stones (4/1) third start after two-year layoff, this Bruce Levine trained filly has come back in fine stead. Look for Raj Maragh to lay back from the pace and swing her into contention at the 1/8th pole.
11 – My Last Million – (8/1) reminds me of the saying “I’m working on my second million after giving up on the first.” There will be quite a bit of speed in this race and with the impending rain, the outside post and the positive jockey switch to Joel Rosario, this gives Million a perfect shot to take this gang down the stretch. Baker Charlton had her on the bench since last fall and she’s been working forwardly for this.
6 – Not About The Nail (3/1) tough to go against a horse that has won the last three in a row and is 6:3-0-1 for the year. Samy Camacho in the irons again with Ed Barker training, they are a deadly 38% proposition.
Belmont Race 8 Bets
8 - $25/w $50/p
$2 Exacta Box 8-11-6
$1 Trifecta 8-6/8-6-1/11, 8-6/11/8-6-1, 11/8-6/8-6-1
Leg 4
$300K Steve Sexton Mile Stakes for 3yo+
The Skinny:
10 – Shotgun Kowboy (10/1) lone millionaire of this group, this 7yo gelding out of Kodiak Kowboy ships in from Oaklawn. Kowboy will be a stretch presence as his last three races have been on an off track and he has shown not only a proclivity to run well in this, he is coming into form. The dry track will be a welcome relief
4 – King Abner (3/1) Cal shipper gave two formidable stakes races in his last outs and seeing that Tyler Baze passed on the 3 in favor of Abner. Phil D’Amato/Tyler Baze pair a solid 17% winners
1 – Title Ready (5/2) could this be the race that this Asmussen trained colt gets his first V? Talk about the bridesmaid. Eramia gets the mount for this Monarchos foal and the j/t tandem is 20%.
Lone Star Race 7 Bets
10 - $25/w $50/p
$2 Exacta Box 10-4-1
$1 Trifecta 4-1/4-1-6/11, 4-1/11/4-1-6, 11/4-1/4-1-6
Leg 5
$125K License Fee Stakes for F & M 4yo+ going 6f - Inner Turf
Just ran out of time, however, I’m going with the 7-6-3
Belmont Race 9 Bets
3 - $20/w $40/p
$2 Exacta Box 7-6-3
$1 Trifecta 7-3/7-3-2/6, 7-3/6/7-3-2, 6/7-3/7-3-2
X Country Bet – if off the turf at Belmont, this is void
2-3/4-9/8-6/10-4-1/7-3 - $36