Thoroughbreds: RT handicaps the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (w/updated race bet change)

Weekend Stakes Edition – The Last Preps Before The Kentucky Derby

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Musings

Jeopardy James Wins Again!
As the saying goes, I broke a few vertebrae kissing my own a** Thursday getting final Jeopardy right whilst Jeopardy James missed the answer to . . .”this inductee into the video hall of fame sold 17 million copies of a videocassette she released in 1982.” The answer is below.
After winning again on Friday, his 7-Day Total is now $415,035.

Lefty Update – my 45-1 bet is still in the hunt. Tiger’s a shot back. You know the senior staff at CBS are praying to the ratings gods that Tiger stays close.

It’s not a stretch to say there won’t be a triple crown winner this year. Additionally, it’s unlikely, given the horses that are entered, there will be a winner of more than one of the three.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Keeneland Race 9
The Stonestreet Lexington Stakes
$200K Grade 3, 1.0625f 3yo
The Skinny :
9-Zenden, is going to catapult out of the gate to avoid getting hung wide. 1-Shang, 3-Sueno, 9-Zenden, 6-Chase The Ghost, and 2-Hawaiian Noises, will get after it early as well. As they make their way thru the backstretch, Hawaiian Noises will have drawn clear. Zenden, 5-Harvey Wallbanger, 4-Anothertwistafate, and Shang will be relaxing near. When they get to the far turn, Anothertwisafate will goose the gas pedal and start to kick in, while Zenden, Shang and Harvey Wallbanger all press for the stretch run. Coming down the stretch, Shang will draw clear and take command after saving ground from the rail. Try as he may, Anothertwistafate will not catch him and will be game, yet come up short. Harvey Wallbanger and Sueno will be in the mix for a slice.
Keeneland Race 9 Bets
$20/w, $40/p 1
$5 Exacta 1-4-3
$1 Tri 1-3/1-3-5/4, 1-3/4/1-3-5,  4/1-3/1-3-5

Oaklawn Race 11
The Arkansas Derby
$1M Grade 1, 1.125f 3yo
Of all the Derby prep races to date, this one appears to be the most competitive. Improbable, Long Range Toddy and Omaha Beach all enter with fanfare, with Long Range Toddy and Omaha Beach winning their last. Of late, the bias of Oaklawn has shifted to the rail, moving it from 23% of gate to wire wins, to 42%. This plays into the hooves of Improbable having drawn the 1 hole. So, look for him, 6-Gray Attempt, 9-One Flew South, 3-Omaha Beach and Tikhvin Flew to make the lead into the first turn and part of the way up the backstretch. As they press up toward the far turn Omaha Beach, Improbable, 7-Galilean, and Gray Attempt will be in the lead with 8-Country House, and 11-Long Range Toddy, drafting in the garden spot. “And down the stretch they come.” Estimating where everyone will be, I am looking for the game, class horse who has had to battle eyeball to eyeball with another and dug in stubbornly refusing to be bested. That brings me to Long Range Toddy. Two races in a row, this Take Charge Indy colt has bull rushed the stretch displaying absolute mettle to win that last and run third before.
Oaklawn Race 11 Bets
$20/w, $40p 11
Exacta Box 11-1-3
Trifecta 11-1/11-8-1/3, 11-1/3/11-8-1, 3/11-1/11-8-1

The answer is Jane Fonda.